• Household saving has soared in the United States and other high-income countries during the #COVID19 pandemic. Read more: Link https://t.co/CZ2se5udU6
    New York Fed Thu 15 Apr 2021 14:36
    Matthew Higgins and Thomas Klitgaard Household saving has soared in the United States and other high-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite widespread declines in wages and other private income streams. This post highlights the role of fiscal policy in driving the saving boom, through stepped-up social benefits and other income support measures. Indeed, in the United States, Japan, and Canada, government assistance has pushed household income above its pre-pandemic trajectory. We argue that the larger scale of government assistance in these countries helps explain why saving in these countries has risen more strongly than in the euro area. Going forward, how freely households spend out of their newly accumulated savings will be a key factor determining the strength of economic recoveries. The pandemic sent consumer spending into retreat, helping drive up saving Consumer spending plummeted in the United States and other high-income economies with...
  • Firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve over the next 6 months, expecting significant increases in employment and prices. #ESMS Link https://t.co/bJ8R57N09r
    New York Fed Thu 15 Apr 2021 13:11
  • Input prices rose at the fastest pace since 2008, and selling prices climbed at a record-setting pace. #ESMS Link https://t.co/tM8lW1mfO0
    New York Fed Thu 15 Apr 2021 13:06
  • Employment levels and the average workweek both expanded modestly. #ESMS Link https://t.co/n8Vo6H1t9s
    New York Fed Thu 15 Apr 2021 13:01
  • Delivery times were the longest on record, and inventories were notably higher. #ESMS Link https://t.co/ehw4bhPcBj
    New York Fed Thu 15 Apr 2021 13:01
  • New orders and shipments grew at a solid clip, and unfilled orders increased. #ESMS Link https://t.co/g78CAPvDPH
    New York Fed Thu 15 Apr 2021 12:56
  • The headline general business conditions index climbed 9 points to 26.3, a multiyear high. #ESMS Link https://t.co/cEeaDI52my
    New York Fed Thu 15 Apr 2021 12:51
  • Business activity grew strongly in New York State, according to firms responding to the April 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Link #ESMS https://t.co/xiIvhMvC4p
    New York Fed Thu 15 Apr 2021 12:46

    Note: Survey responses were collected between April 2 and April 9.

    Download the full report 

    Business activity grew strongly in New York State, according to firms responding to the April 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed nine points to 26.3, a multi-year high. New orders and shipments grew at a solid clip, and unfilled orders increased. Delivery times were the longest on record, and inventories were notably higher. Employment levels and the average workweek both expanded modestly. Input prices rose at the fastest pace since 2008, and selling prices climbed at a record-setting pace. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve over the next six months, expecting significant increases in employment and prices.

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  • NEW BLOG POST: What Is Behind the Global Jump in Personal Saving During the Pandemic? Link https://t.co/kO6oH9eMVz
    New York Fed Wed 14 Apr 2021 14:25
    Matthew Higgins and Thomas Klitgaard Household saving has soared in the United States and other high-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite widespread declines in wages and other private income streams. This post highlights the role of fiscal policy in driving the saving boom, through stepped-up social benefits and other income support measures. Indeed, in the United States, Japan, and Canada, government assistance has pushed household income above its pre-pandemic trajectory. We argue that the larger scale of government assistance in these countries helps explain why saving in these countries has risen more strongly than in the euro area. Going forward, how freely households spend out of their newly accumulated savings will be a key factor determining the strength of economic recoveries.
  • March is currently estimated at 2.2%, a 0.5% increase from the previous month. Read more about the current movements in #inflation: Link #economy https://t.co/155sqR1M3G
    New York Fed Tue 13 Apr 2021 19:19
    We share two monthly estimates of trend inflation. The first derives a measure from a large number of price series in the consumer price index (CPI) as well as macroeconomic and financial variables; the second employs the prices-only data set. For more information, see our FAQ.
  • RT @NYFedResearch: March Survey: Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one…
    New York Fed Tue 13 Apr 2021 19:09
  • Since mid-2017, this trend reversed as stronger demand expectations and stabilizing anticipated supply drove oil prices higher. This lasted until 2018:Q4, when weaker demand lowered prices. Oil prices rose in 2019 due to increasing demand expectations.
    New York Fed Tue 13 Apr 2021 15:44
  • Overall, between 2014 and 2017, both lower global demand expectations and higher anticipated supply held oil prices down.
    New York Fed Tue 13 Apr 2021 15:44
  • Increased supply led to falling oil prices in 2020:Q3, and this reversed in 2020:Q4, as oil prices rose owing to increased demand and decreased supply.
    New York Fed Tue 13 Apr 2021 15:44
  • In 2020:Q1, oil prices plummeted owing to decreased demand and increased supply, whereas in 2020:Q2, oil prices rose owing to increased demand.
    New York Fed Tue 13 Apr 2021 15:44
  • Over the past week, an increase in demand expectations was offset by an increase in anticipated supply, resulting in lower oil prices. In 2021:Q1, oil prices rose owing to increased demand and decreased supply.
    New York Fed Tue 13 Apr 2021 15:44
  • Oil prices decreased over the past week owing to increased supply. Read more from the latest oil report: Link https://t.co/FvAeJXjDH5
    New York Fed Tue 13 Apr 2021 15:44
    How oil price fluctuations affect the U.S. economy will depend on whether supply or demand factors are driving them. Our statistical model examines correlations of oil price changes with a broad array of financial variables to determine which forces best explain price movements. We update it each Monday at 3 p.m. (except during blackout periods surrounding Federal Open Market Committee meetings). When federal holidays occur on a Monday, the report is delayed by twenty-four hours. Find detailed information about our methodology within the report.
  • RT @ClimateLending: Thanks @NVJRobins1! So looking forward to what will be a fascinating discussion with these top #climateleaders: @SDDecl…
    New York Fed Mon 12 Apr 2021 16:43
  • NEW BLOG POST: How COVID-19 Affected First-Time Homebuyers Link https://t.co/oTBaHxIBvd
    New York Fed Mon 12 Apr 2021 15:53
    Olivier Armantier, Leo Goldman, Gizem Ko?ar, and Wilbert van der Klaauw In October, we reported evidence on how households used their first economic impact payments, which they started to receive in mid-April 2020 as part of the CARES Act, and how they expected to use a second stimulus payment. In this post, we exploit new survey data to examine how households used the second round of stimulus checks, issued starting at the end of December 2020 as part of the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations (CRRSA) Act, and we investigate how they plan to use the third round authorized in March under the American Rescue Plan Act. We find remarkable stability in how stimulus checks are used over the three rounds, with a slight decline in the share dedicated to consumption and a proportional increase in the share saved. The average share of stimulus payments that households set aside for consumption—what economists call the marginal propensity to...
  • RT @NYFedResearch: What do economists do? Where do they work? How do you start a career in the field? Join our staff economists, RAs, and o…
    New York Fed Wed 24 Mar 2021 20:09
  • RT @NYFedResearch: New @LibertyStEcon analysis examines liquidity provision by dealers in key financial markets during the #COVID19 pandemi…
    New York Fed Wed 24 Mar 2021 20:09
  • Since mid-2017, this trend reversed as stronger demand expectations and stabilizing anticipated supply drove oil prices higher. This lasted until 2018:Q4, when weaker demand lowered prices.
    New York Fed Wed 24 Mar 2021 20:09
  • Overall, between 2014 and 2017, both lower global demand expectations and higher anticipated supply held oil prices down.
    New York Fed Wed 24 Mar 2021 20:09
  • In 2020:Q1, oil prices plummeted owing to decreased demand and increased supply, whereas in 2020:Q2, oil prices rose owing to increased demand. In 2020:Q3, oil prices fell owing to increased supply. Oil prices rose in 2019 due to increasing demand expectations.
    New York Fed Wed 24 Mar 2021 20:09
  • Over the past three weeks, an increase in demand expectations was offset by an increase in anticipated supply, resulting in lower oil prices. In 2020:Q4, oil prices rose owing to increased demand and decreased supply.
    New York Fed Wed 24 Mar 2021 20:09
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