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- The street expects US CPI to rise +0.5% M/M in July, and the annual rate to pare back by 0.1ppts to 5.3% Y/Y. The core CPI metric is forecast to rise +0.4% M/M, though the annual rate is seen easing by 0.2ppts to 4.3% Y/Y. UBS' big data analytics flags the possibility of upside to the consensus, noting that food, energy, and core prices all continued higher in the month. The bank is however expecting core goods prices (ex-apparel and transport) to begin falling in the autumn after notable strength in recent years. "We have seen some initial signs of a weakening of supply drivers of inflation in the ISM (lower delivery time and prices paid indexes) and demand drivers in the PCE data (lower share of core goods in consumption spending), but our guess is that the June slowdown was a blip and we are still a few months away from a sustained weakening," the bank wrote. Fed officials' base case still frames inflation upside as transitory, although key policymakers have been hedging...
- Equity bourses/futures are mixed but relatively contained around the unchanged mark in minimal newsflow; ES -0.1%, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2% USD retains an underlying bid to the detriment of peers across the board though EUR/USD remains above current YTD lows US Senate passed the infrastructure bill as expected, most GOP Senators pledged to not help Democrats on the debt ceiling; subsequently passing the USD 3.5trl Democrat resolution Core debt is subdued pre-CPI as concession ahead of US issuance creeps in though EGBs are off lows post a 2031 Bund outing North Korea said it will make South Korea and the US feel a "massive security crisis every minute" Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, Fed's Bostic & George, supply from the US
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EQUITIES
European equities (Eurostoxx 50 +0.2%) trade with marginal gains with the Stoxx 600 once again printing a fresh record high. Fresh macro developments for the region remain sparse with some of the discrepancies between individual indices dictated by earnings. The APAC lead was a relatively mixed one, whilst US futures currently trade with marginal losses after the SPX and DJIA rose to record highs during yesterday’s session. Developments stateside have seen the US Senate vote 50-49 to approve the USD 3.5trl Democratic Budget plan and thus pave the way for developing the budget bill and implementing priorities of the Biden administration. Elsewhere, the taper timeline...
You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more
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