Morning all! - Asian equity markets were subdued following the mixed performance on Wall St; S&P 500 and DJIA posted a 5th consecutive session of record closes
Newsquawk Tue 17 Aug 2021 05:28- China's military says announces exercises in air and sea near Taiwan which are a solemn response to external interference and provocations by Taiwan's independence forces Newsquawk Tue 17 Aug 2021 04:13
- Asia begins somewhat mixed after a similar performance on Wall St, where S&P 500 & DJIA recovered from initial data-triggered selling to post a 5th consecutive record close, although Nasdaq and R2K declined as cyclicals lagged; ASX 200 (-0.2%), Nikkei 225 (+0.6%), KOSPI (+0.2%) Newsquawk Tue 17 Aug 2021 00:13
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- OPEC+ sees no need to release more oil into the market at present, despite US calls -- sources #OOTT Newsquawk Mon 16 Aug 2021 15:18
- JPM Bull & Bear Cases. Bull: Improving earnings momentum; Accelerating buybacks; Improving COVID; More stimulus; China growth reboot; Improved labour markets Bear: COVID expands/mutates; Online schooling; Fed policy mistake; China’s COVID-Zero policy; US Government Shutdown. https://t.co/SU8Pzj7SCW Newsquawk Mon 16 Aug 2021 13:58
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- Welly well. Never doubt the Bruno/Salah combo. ? Big congrats and Follow Monday to @ljzaz for 1st place! 2nd to Amirreza's Amer's 11 3rd to Chirag's Piemonte Calcio . --- Conversely, some familiar faces in the bottom 10 of the table – named and shamed! Link https://t.co/VGDkECNvOD Newsquawk Mon 16 Aug 2021 13:23
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- NY Fed Mfg. Survey for August shows a big fall to 18.30 from 43 (exp. 29). Employment and New Orders sub-indices see chunky falls while price paid remains elevated. Follows the disappointing Uni of Michigan survey on Friday, kicking off August survey data on the back foot Newsquawk Mon 16 Aug 2021 12:38
- US opens formal investigation of Tesla (TSLA) autopilot citing collisions with parked emergency vehicles, AP reports Newsquawk Mon 16 Aug 2021 11:47
- China Cabinet: Seeking solutions to rising raw materials prices; will improve policies to counter increases in key commodities prices Newsquawk Mon 16 Aug 2021 11:12
- European bourses/US futures are softer with FX-havens bid but core debt pulling back after initial upside on weekend/overnight updates; ES -0.2% Focus has been on disappointing activity data from China, while weekend newsflow was dominated by events in Afghanistan The Taliban effectively took control of Kabul which prompted a mass exodus of foreigners and embassy personnel from the city DXY benefits from pressure in activity currencies and particularly the AUD while crude benchmarks are lower but off earlier troughs BoE Governor Bailey and ECB President Lagarde will not be attending the Jackson Hole Symposium this year Looking ahead, highlights include NY Fed Manufacturing
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Analysis details (10:46)
EQUITIES
European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -0.7%) have kicked the week off on the backfoot in the wake of lacklustre Chinese data and ongoing COVID concerns. Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales data both missed expectations with the stats bureau noting that the recovery remains uneven, citing sporadic virus outbreaks and natural disasters. In Australia, sentiment was also pressured by the ongoing COVID-19 situation that has forced an extension of lockdowns across several state capitals, whilst Japan is likely to extend the state of emergency to additional prefectures as soon as this week. A lot of newsflow has centred around...
- Therefore, a Q4 announcement seems like a strong modal. We think December is the most likely time but cannot discard November. We expect that at every meeting between Dec'21 and Nov'22, the Fed will reduce the amount of monthly asset purchases by $15bn. Newsquawk Mon 16 Aug 2021 09:42
- UBS on Fed taper: Sept seems to have low chance as Powell and Clarida said that the Fed will give advance notice before the taper. A 2022 announcement also seems to have a low probability given the July hawkish statement/Powell no longer saying that the taper is a "ways off." Newsquawk Mon 16 Aug 2021 09:42
- Rabobank estimates EUR 14bln of primary sovereign EGB issuance this week with no redemptions due; however, highlights that taking ECB activity into account issuance is a net negative of EUR 3bln - One to keep in mind on the morning's pullback to flat and any concession narrative Newsquawk Mon 16 Aug 2021 09:37
- - The Fed tapers Treasuries at a pace of $10bn/meeting and MBS at a pace of $5bn/meeting, which keeps the asset purchase program on track to wrap up in 4Q22. The Fed first raises rates in 2Q23, delivering two 25bp hikes to end the year at 0.625%. Newsquawk Mon 16 Aug 2021 09:12
- - In 4Q21 we forecast an average unemployment rate of 4.5% with the Y/Y rate of core PCE at 3.4%. - An official announcement of tapering comes in Dec'21, kicking off the start of the taper in Jan'22. Newsquawk Mon 16 Aug 2021 09:12
- MS Baseline taper scenario: - Core PCE inflation remains elevated Y/Y and the total employment shortfall at end-2020 is cut more than half by the end of 2021, meeting the Fed's definition of "substantial further progress" towards its employment goal. Newsquawk Mon 16 Aug 2021 09:12
- ING on Empire Mfg: Any signs that inflation pressure is abating could be greeted with a counter-intuitive reaction from rates: we expect the implied forward Fed Fund for the years 2024/2025 to rise as it would mean that supply constraints holding the economy back are easing Newsquawk Mon 16 Aug 2021 07:32
- JP Morgan: We have set out new index targets, looking for a further 4-7% upside into year-end, with SX5E at 4500, on top of the already very strong 19% Eurozone equity return delivered ytd, ex-dividends Newsquawk Mon 16 Aug 2021 07:32
- Asia-Pac stocks traded mostly subdued and US equity futures pulled back from record levels Participants digested disappointing activity data from China, while weekend newsflow was dominated by events in Afghanistan The Taliban effectively took control of Kabul which prompted a mass exodus of foreigners and embassy personnel from the city In FX, the DXY was choppy around 92.50, EUR/USD eyes 1.18 ahead of the European open BoE Governor Bailey and ECB President Lagarde will not be attending the Jackson Hole Symposium this year Looking ahead, highlights include NY Fed Manufacturing
- - BoE Governor Bailey and ECB President Lagarde will not be attending the Jackson Hole Symposium this year Newsquawk Mon 16 Aug 2021 05:32
- - In FX, the DXY was choppy around 92.50, EUR/USD eyes 1.18 ahead of the European open Newsquawk Mon 16 Aug 2021 05:32
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