- Second quarter GDP releases include updates for the US and EurozoneUS policy in spotlight as FOMC meetsKey Asia trade and output releases accompanied by GDP for Hong Kong, Taiwan and Japan, plus China PMI
- Flash Australia PMI rises to highest in over three yearsDemand improves, but insufficient to raise capacity pressureBusiness sentiment remains positive as firms eye further easing of COVID-19 restrictionsCost inflation eases, while output charges fall
- Flash Japan PMI rises from 40.8 to 43.9 in July but signals further steep drop in outputDownturn remains broad-based despite easing COVID-19 measuresJob losses intensify, with employment decline among fastest since 2010Business expectations turn increasingly negative
- Flash PMI surveys for July covering manufacturing and services for the US, Eurozone, UK, Japan and AustraliaUS jobless claims and home salesSouth Korea GDP updatesRBA meeting minutes and BoJ summary of opinions
The following is an extract from IHS Markit's monthly PMI overview presentation. For the full report please click on the link at the bottom of the article.
The JPMorgan Global PMI™ (compiled by IHS Markit) jumped by a record 11.4 index points in June, building on a prior record increase of just over 10 index points in May to push the index to a five-month high. Despite the rise, at 47.7, the PMI remained below the no-change 50.0 level to indicate a fifth successive monthly deterioration of output across the combined manufacturing and service sectors. However, historical comparisons indicate that a PMI reading of 46.7 is the cut off level between global GDP rising or falling on an annual basis, suggesting that the June surveys were indicative of a very modest return to growth for the global economy.
The rebound in the PMI from it's unprecedented low in April has been driven by the loosening of COVID-19 containment measures around the world during both May and June,...
The coming week sees policy meetings at the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank accompanied by industrial output numbers for the world's largest economies, as well as retail sales data for the US and China. The latter also releases its second quarter GDP. Inflation data for the US, Eurozone and UK will also be eyed as markets try to assess whether inflation or deflation looks set to dominate the post-COVID world.
The earnings season also starts in earnest with some key tech and financial names including Microsoft, Netflix, IBM, Johnson & Johnson, Pepsi, Honeywell, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo and Blackrock.
In the US, June updates to industrial production and retail sales will give clues as to the durability of the upturn after rebounds seen in the May data. While surveys have signalled further vigour in terms of economic growth momentum in June, concerns have been fuelled that the upturn could...
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