A comprehensive view of global economic conditions midway through the third quarter will be provided by the worldwide PMI surveys, with the week closing with the all-important US non-farm payroll report. Other key releases include GDP for India, Brazil, Australia and South Korea, while policy action comes from Australia.
Global PMI data will be eagerly awaited to assess whether the economic rebound from COVID-19 lockdowns has persisted into August. Flash PMI data brought mixed news: although the G4 largest developed economies collectively saw the shapest expansion since March 2019, only the US and UK reported faster growth. The Eurozone's expansion lost pace and Japan remained firmly stuck in contraction. The final PMI numbers will provide more detail on both manufacturing and services conditions in all major developed and emerging markets. Detailed sector PMIs will also add insight into winners and losers: July saw auto makers lead the global upturn but conditions...
The coming week will see GDP estimate updates for the US, Germany and France for a more accurate view into the extent of the economic collapse during the second quarter. Markets will, however, focus their minds on business surveys and a virtual meeting of global central bankers to gauge recovery paths going forward as well as glean what monetary policymakers' latest view is regarding the global economy.
The Jackson Hole symposium, to be held virtually, will be watched for any signs of future policy changes at the Fed in particular, and broader guidance on global monetary policy.
Flash IHS Markit US PMI indicated a solid rise in private sector growth during August, with services business activity returning to expansion. Alongside robust retail sales and housing data for July, eyes now turn to durable goods orders, personal income and spending updates for more clues as to the strength of the recovery heading into the third quarter. However, there remain...
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