The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report (including Special Reports) please click on the link at the bottom of the article.
The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report (including Special Reports) please click on the link at the bottom of the article.
Flash PMI data signalled a deeper downturn in Australia's private sector economy at the start of the year, with the headline index falling to a survey-record low during January. However, the survey's more forward-looking indicators suggest that the downturn could bottom out in coming months. There were also signs of strengthening export growth amid an easing in the US-China tensions.
Manufacturing-led decline
The Commonwealth Bank Australia Flash PMI, compiled by IHS Markit and covering both the manufacturing and service sectors, fell to 48.6 in January, down from 49.6 in December and signalling a contraction of business activity for a third month running. The latest reading was the lowest since data collection began in May 2016.
The ongoing weakness was led by a fifth straight monthly fall in manufacturing output, which represents the longest continual decline in goods production in the survey's history. The production downturn was primarily fuelled by...
The latest GDP data add to signs that the UK economy stagnated at best in the fourth quarter of last year as heightened political uncertainty, Brexit risks and weaker global demand all colluded to dampen spending by both business and households. The good news is that all these headwinds are showing signs of moderating, if not even turning into tail winds, as we move into 2020. However, downside risks remain elevated.
November decline raises risk of fourth quarter contraction
Official data from the Office for National Statistics showed the economy contracting 0.3% in November, worse than the unchanged picture expected by economists, but broadly in line with the trend signalled by recent survey data.
Manufacturing led the decline, with output dropping 1.7%, but the vast service sector also contracted, with output falling 0.3%. The construction sector surprised to the upside, with a 1.9% surge in output, though data for this part of the economy are subject both...
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