The flash PMI surveys will be an eagerly awaited focus of the week, providing the first insights into how the global economy has fared during the Covid-19 outbreak.

News of the virus came on the heels of the global PMI surveys having shown the pace of worldwide economic expansion picking up to a ten-month high in January, driven to a large extent by easing global trade tensions and the pass-through of prior central bank stimulus. The concern is that slumping demand from China, a downturn in travel and tourism and supply chain disruptions will have all dampened growth in February. More information is needed to gauge the degree to which global economic growth will be hit, hence the February PMIs being so important in helping assess both the depth and breadth of the initial impact.

In the US, the PMIs showed a lop-sided economy remaining reliant on the service sector as an engine of growth, with manufacturing struggling to expand due to weak exports in...

Survey data show that business gloom surrounding the path of the global economy and geopolitical uncertainty had begun to fade at the start of 2020, prior to the 2019-nCov outbreak.

Anecdotal evidence from global survey panellists shows that the worldwide outlook had improved since last autumn, when political tensions and weaker economic and trade data signalled an uncertain future for businesses. As a result, firms' expectations for future output were the strongest for nine months in January.

However, the coronavirus outbreak in China which intensified in late-January offers a potent threat to the world economy in the near-term that is yet to be captured by PMI survey data. Thus, upcoming surveys will be keenly awaited for signs of any renewed heightening of business uncertainty, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, and the potential of the virus to derail the nascent recovery in global economic conditions.

IHS Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index® (PMI®)...

The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report (including Special Reports) please click on the link at the bottom of the article.

The following is an extract from IHS Markit's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report (including Special Reports) please click on the link at the bottom of the article.

Summary: 5th February 2020

The euro area economy is set to record another weak quarter of growth, according to the latest nowcast estimate. Our dynamic factor model points to another marginal quarter-on-quarter rate of expansion, with growth trends at regional levels once again deviating markedly from one another. Meanwhile, based on available data and forecasts in our model, the UK is set to record a reasonable expansion relative to its European peers.

Our eurozone GDP nowcast for Q1 was broadly unchanged at +0.09%q/q. While positively there are signs that the deep manufacturing downturn isn't getting any worse, factory output is still expected to negatively contribute to economic output in the first three months of the year.

According to our dynamic factor model, underlying economic conditions in Germany have picked up ever-so-slightly, with first quarter GDP expected to rise by +0.05%q/q. The pickup from the previous quarter reflects improvements in PMI...