The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 beyond its impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate the impact of COVID-19 on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the...

Dave Altig is executive vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. In addition to advising the Bank president on monetary policy and related matters, Dr. Altig oversees the Bank's regional executives and the Bank's research department. He also serves as a member of the Bank's management and discount committees. He leads the Atlanta Fed's macroblog, which provides commentary on economic topics, including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, and the Southeast economy.

The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 beyond its impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate the impact of COVID-19 on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the...

Take On Payments, a blog sponsored by the Retail Payments Risk Forum of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, is intended to foster dialogue on emerging risks in retail payment systems and enhance collaborative efforts to improve risk detection and mitigation. We encourage your active participation in Take on Payments and look forward to collaborating with you.

July 21, 2020

Among those affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, those who earned the least suffered the greatest economic impact. That observation is among many other findings in the Federal Reserve’s latest Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households published in May.

The results are based on an online survey the Fed conducted with more than 12,000 people in the fall of 2019. This past April, the Fed administered a supplemental survey to 1,000 of those respondents to gain insights about initial effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. That survey found that 39 percent of people working in February in a household with income below $40,000 lost a job in March—meaning that workers in households earning less than $40,000 a year were three times more likely to have lost a job in March than those living in households with annual earnings of more than $100,000.

Since that supplemental survey, more people have faced layoffs, while some started returning to...

Q: Unemployment was 3.5 percent in February 2020, before the effect of COVID-19 substantially impacted the data. How many jobs would have to be added each month, on average, over the next 12 months for the U.S. to be at that number once again?” ### By default, the CES/CPS employment ratio is assumed to maintain its previous 12 month average. See the FAQ document for an explanation of how this ratio figures into the Jobs Calculator projection of Payroll Employment growth.

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