Imagine a future where racial and gender labor market disparities don’t exist. How much would each state economy stand to gain? That’s the question behind this simulation. While we can’t predict the future, we can look to the past for clues.

For this thought experiment, we crunched the numbers for 15 years of data spanning 2005-2019. For every US state and Washington DC, we modeled how much gross domestic product (GDP) would have increased each year by eliminating racial and gender gaps in earnings, hours worked, educational attainment, and employment.

This simulation adapts methodology from a recent Federal Reserve working paper, which estimates that these gaps cost $2.6 trillion of foregone GDP nationally in 2019. Simulated GDP in our scenario assumes that every group has at least the same average labor-related measures as a comparison group that has historically faced the fewest systemic barriers in the labor market; for example, closing...

Description: We calculate the median PCE inflation rate based on data released in the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ monthly Personal Income and Outlays report. Median PCE inflation is the one-month inflation rate of the component whose expenditure weight is in the 50th percentile of price changes. Benefits: By omitting outliers (small and large price changes) and focusing on the interior of the distribution of price changes, the median PCE inflation rate can provide a better signal of the underlying inflation trend than either the all-items PCE price index or the PCE price index excluding food and energy (also known as the core PCE price index).

In May 2017, I traveled from Washington DC to several small towns in eastern Kentucky. These towns are remote, historically impoverished Appalachian communities facing persistent economic challenges. I heard stories of hardship but also of ingenuity and resilience from small-business owners, community leaders, community bankers, and residents. That trip, chronicled in this story from the Cleveland Fed, is one of dozens I’ve taken to areas across the United States to learn firsthand about challenges facing communities large and small, rural and urban, and how lenders and community groups are collaborating well—and in some cases not so well—to combat these challenges.

One way the Fed can help support communities such as those in eastern Kentucky is through the Community Reinvestment Act, or CRA. The CRA is one of the most powerful tools we, as federal bank regulators, have to address systemic inequities in credit access for minority and low- and moderate-income (LMI)...

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Smith was among 18.1 million Americans who became temporarily unemployed during April 2020. For families and individuals like Smith—facing unemployment or a loss of income during the pandemic—eviction has been a real possibility. At the same time, rental market policies at the local, state, and national levels have varied from place to place and have changed over time since the pandemic hit the United States, leading to inconsistent outcomes for both tenants and landlords.

Garrett Borawski Mark E. Schweitzer

We investigate the degree to which Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans reached small businesses in low- and moderate-income (LMI) communities. We find evidence that the program did have a broad reach within LMI communities, but that it reached higher-income communities to a greater extent and areas with Black, Hispanic, and American Indian or Alaska Native majorities to a lesser extent. Read More

Smith was among 18.1 million Americans who became temporarily unemployed during April 2020. For families and individuals like Smith—facing unemployment or a loss of income during the pandemic—eviction has been a real possibility. At the same time, rental market policies at the local, state, and national levels have varied from place to place and have changed over time since the pandemic hit the United States, leading to inconsistent outcomes for both tenants and landlords.

Background: The Cleveland Fed has been maintaining a survey of consumers for their views on how they are responding to COVID-19, the illness caused by the novel coronavirus of late 2019, and how COVID-19 is likely to impact the economy. Description: We update the results from these surveys on a weekly basis.

Garrett Borawski Mark E. Schweitzer

We investigate the degree to which Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans reached small businesses in low- and moderate-income (LMI) communities. We find evidence that the program did have a broad reach within LMI communities, but that it reached higher-income communities to a greater extent and areas with Black, Hispanic, and American Indian or Alaska Native majorities to a lesser extent. Read More

Garrett Borawski Mark E. Schweitzer

We investigate the degree to which Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans reached small businesses in low- and moderate-income (LMI) communities. We find evidence that the program did have a broad reach within LMI communities, but that it reached higher-income communities to a greater extent and areas with Black, Hispanic, and American Indian or Alaska Native majorities to a lesser extent. Read More

Background: The Cleveland Fed has been maintaining a survey of consumers for their views on how they are responding to COVID-19, the illness caused by the novel coronavirus of late 2019, and how COVID-19 is likely to impact the economy. Description: We update the results from these surveys on a weekly basis.

The Beige Book, released 8 times a year, contains reports of economic conditions across the United States by region. Reports are based on information gathered primarily through interviews with business people and are prepared by each of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks for their respective Districts.

Ben R. Craig

A number of financial stress measures were developed after the financial crisis of 2007–2009 in the hope that they could provide regulators with advance warning of conditions that might warrant a corrective response. The Cleveland Fed’s systemic risk indicator is one such measure. This Commentary provides a review of the SRI’s performance from 2001 to 2020 and finds that it has performed well, providing a reliable, valid, and timely signal of elevated levels of financial system stress. Read More

Ben R. Craig

A number of financial stress measures were developed after the financial crisis of 2007–2009 in the hope that they could provide regulators with advance warning of conditions that might warrant a corrective response. The Cleveland Fed’s systemic risk indicator is one such measure. This Commentary provides a review of the SRI’s performance from 2001 to 2020 and finds that it has performed well, providing a reliable, valid, and timely signal of elevated levels of financial system stress. Read More

June 2, 2021 12:00 p.m. – 2:30 p.m. ET | 11:00 a.m. – 1:30 p.m. CT Virtual video event presented by all 12 District Banks of the Federal Reserve System

Senior Vice President

Mark Schweitzer is senior vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. He advises and informs the Cleveland Reserve Bank’s president and board of directors on regional economic developments and economic policy issues.

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Senior Community Development Analyst

Mr. Klesta is a Senior Community Development Analyst in the Community Development Department where he focuses on urban revitalization, issues affecting low- to moderate-income communities, and the impact of natural resource extraction on rural communities.

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