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A treasure chest full of gold, jewels and other valuables worth more than $1m (£790,000) is said to have been found in the Rocky Mountains.

Antiquities collector Forrest Fenn says he hid the bronze chest more than a decade ago, creating a treasure hunt for people to find it.

Thousands of people searched for it, many quitting their jobs and using up their savings. Four people died.

Now, Mr Fenn says, a man from "back East" has finally tracked it down.

"It was under a canopy of stars in the lush, forested vegetation of the Rocky Mountains and had not moved from the spot where I hid it more than 10 years ago," Mr Fenn, an 89-year-old millionaire from New Mexico, said in a statement.

Wowsers, the U.S. labour market never ceases to amaze bond investors. After the cataclysmic April U.S. employment report—nonfarm payrolls (NFP) had dropped by 20.7 million and the unemployment rate had shot up to 14.7%—there was broad agreement amongst market observers that May would prove to be another challenging month. In a Bloomberg survey of 78 economists, the most bullish forecast was a NFP decline of 800,000. The median NFP projection indicated a loss of 7.5 million jobs, while the unemployment rate was predicted to approach Great Depression levels of around 20%.

The Slavery Abolition Act of 1833 formally freed 800,000 Africans who were then the legal property of Britain’s slave owners. What is less well known is that the same act contained a provision for the financial compensation of the owners of those slaves, by the British taxpayer, for the loss of their “property”. The compensation commission was the government body established to evaluate the claims of the slave owners and administer the distribution of the £20m the government had set aside to pay them off. That sum represented 40% of the total government expenditure for 1834. It is the modern equivalent of around £23bn.

The distribution of the £20m was entrusted to a Slave Compensation Commission which began to meet in October 1833 and included representatives of the Colonial Office and the slave registry. It worked on data collected by assistant colonial boards of compensation nominated by the governor in each colony, and compensation was allowed on slaves appearing...

M&G's Jim Leaviss talks to Stephen King, economic adviser to HSBC, whose recently released book suggests that the rise of both global trade and US-led global institutions since the Second World War may not continue. The election of Donald Trump as US President, the UK’s vote for Brexit, and the rise of far right politics in Europe are reactions to the inequality that globalisation has produced. The fall of the Berlin Wall and collapse of communism, and China’s entry into the World Trade Organisation (WTO) may be nearer the end of the process of global democratisation and opening of markets, rather than the beginning. If the US is to step back from its role at the head of the world’s global institutions, who will take its place? China? Or will there be a leadership vacuum?Visit Bond Vigilantes: https://www.bondvigilantes.com/?utm_s...

This month will see a significant step forward in the evolution of ESG (environmental, social and governance factors) as a part of fixed income investing, with the launch of the iTraxx MSCI ESG Screened Europe CDS (credit default swap) index.  The past few years have seen a noticeable acceleration in investors’ ESG awareness, driven to varying extents by social conscience and evidence that ESG factors provide a useful framework in fundamental company research.  One of the challenges for wider integration is the availability of information, and the ease with which investors can act on it.  The launch of the new index will help in both these areas.  But even if you don’t count yourself as an ESG investor, the launch of the new “ESG Main” index brings some important considerations:

We are currently in the throes of the sharpest and largest economic downturn the modern global economy has ever seen. However, as I wrote in March this is very different from previous recessions.

To recap, a recession has three stages:

Stage 1: into recession

A rapid, record collapse in economic growth as normal economic life is dramatically curtailed for public health reasons.

Stage 2: end of recession

A rapid. record jump in economic growth as we lift public restrictions.

Stage 3: post recession

An economy trying to offset new business practices and a collapse in confidence with strong monetary and fiscal stimulus.

Where are we now?

Economic growth has plunged, unemployment has soared, and we are now at an inflection point, at which growth will now be rebounding and then eventually settling on a relatively (to 2020) stable course: as I wrote in my last blog, a Flash Crash t-shaped recession.

It’s been a wild ride in May for Italian government bonds, so-called Buoni del Tesoro Poliannuali (BTPs). The yield spread of 10-year BTPs over 10yr German Bunds first rose to c. 250 basis points (bps) after the German Constitutional Court had ruled that the ECB’s Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) was partly unconstitutional. Subsequently, the Italian risk premium collapsed to c. 190 bps when the COVID-19 situation started easing and details around the proposed EU recovery fund were unveiled. European bond investors are scratching their heads about the direction of travel for BTPs, going forward. In my view, we have to take into account three key aspect—the Good, the Bad and the Ugly.

The Good: Next Generation EU

Clearly, the European Commission’s plan to launch ‘Next Generation EU’, a €750 billion EU recovery instrument, is excellent news for the European periphery and especially Italy. The proposal combines joint borrowing at the European Commission...

Summer has arrived, and so should the main tourist season in Europe in a normal year. However, as we know, this year has been anything but normal. With lockdown endings in sight across the majority of countries in the region, most are preparing to welcome tourists back. Some have already opened their borders for EU visitors, while many prepare to open them for everyone from late June or early July. When and whether tourists actually return though is quite another question. Despite the removal of travel restrictions, many people will likely still limit their travel due to safety concerns and significant drop in their incomes.

Some of the first hard data since the beginning of the pandemic have not been encouraging – for example, Turkey has reported 99% y/y drop in foreign tourist arrivals in April. On a positive note, for the vast majority of European countries, the highest share of tourist revenues tends to come in Q3 (up to 50-60% of the annual total)....