- Let's see how this pans out ... I'd suggest Chinese authorities would be quick to step in and proper up anything that needs propping up. The death of China has been greatly exaggerated many times.
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- State Premier Andrews will release the 'roadmap' out of lockdown on Sunday (September 19). Long story short is minor easings of restrictions at first which will increase as further vaccination targets are hit. Andrews ants to avoid the risk of a too-fast easing of restrictions "crashing" the hospital system and thus:"It will be subject to all sorts of things including how many people are in hospital." Vic is projected to hit its 80% double vaccinated target around November 3
- We maintain a bullish skew on GBP and expect it to outperform on the crosses against currencies with less hawkish central banks, like SEK. Recent comments from Bank of England policymakers were on the hawkish side, with Governor Bailey saying the committee was evenly split on whether the minimum conditions for a rate hike had been met at the August meetingThe BoE should thus remain one of the more hawkish G10 central banks, with the focus being on the evolution of the labour market into the autumnGBP/USD should however remain largely driven by the broader USD trajectory and may be more rangebound given our bullish USD view
- The resilience of consumer sentiment in a period when Australia's two major cities have been locked down and the economy has been contracting is truly remarkable. The Index is still comfortably above the reads seen over the five years prior to the pandemic and is only 0.9% below its June print just prior to Sydney's move into lock-down
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed on Tuesday an enforcement action to charge a Texas resident and several Costa Rican companies with charges related to forex and commodities fraud. According to the press release, Rudy Avila and six firms were allegedly involved in fraudulent solicitation to trade in commodity futures, options on commodities futures, retail off-exchange, misappropriation of funds, and issuing false statements.
The authority noted that the following Costa Rican companies were charged as part of the enforcement action filed before the US District Court for the Northern District of Texas: The L.I.F.T. Group LLC (LIFT), CIG Internacional Sociedad Anónima (CIG), and Trading Technologies Group Sociedad Anónima (TTG) organized in Costa Rica, Trading Ventures Group, LLC (TVG), Capital Ventures Group, LLC (CVG), and Ventures Group, LLC (VGL.).
According to the findings, Avila, LIFT, CIG, and TTG engaged in an investment scheme to...
- The official PMIs largely focuses on big and state-owned firms. The Caixin / Markit PMIs have a greater representation of firms smaller than the big and SOEs. Supportive measures will be welcomed by the smaller firms.
- export-reliant firms such as carmakers suffered from a global chip shortagethe bleaker view on current conditions suggests Japan's economic growth may slow in the third quartercompanies are struggling with sluggish demand both at home and abroad as a slowdown in China and emerging markets clouds the outlookfirms reported the deepening impact of a global chip shortage, as activities and broader demand continued to be hobbled by the health crisis, with some saying they were suffering from higher raw material prices
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- Gensler's testimony is in relation to the Accelerating Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. The bill is not yet law (the US Senate passed the bill in June but the House of Representatives has yet to vote on it). If it passes it would reduce the amount of time US-traded Chinese companies have to hand over their audits to US regulators to 2 years from 3 before they can be delisted from American exchanges.
Now that stocks have emerged from their 5-day losing streak, narrowly averting 6 consecutive days of declines which would have been the longest such streak since the February 2020 depths of the covid crisis, attention shifts to the market's technicals and especially Friday's upcoming quad-witch which sees some $1.5 trillion in SPX option expirations, as well as $1.4tln in options across underlyings expiring on Friday afternoon, including the 2nd largest expiration for single stocks outside of a January.
Courtesy of Goldman, here Four observations on option positioning ahead of Friday's quarterly maturity:
1. Option volumes have been continuing to grow relative to delta-one volumes. Both index and single stock option markets have shown volume growth in Q3, while delta-one volumes (futures and shares) have fallen. Having traditionally traded well below 100%, SPX options notional volumes are now double the volume of futures traded.
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