The major US stock indices are open and trading negative/near unchanged levels. The indices did open higher, but as has been the pattern this week, sellers have entered and pushed lower. Monday and Tuesday had volatile up and down trading. The Dow and S&P both rose on Monday, but yesterday they declined. The NASDAQ index meanwhile has been down for five consecutive trading days. The NASDAQ index is currently trading marginally lower.

The EURUSD is trading up and down today. The support near the 1.1800 level ended up holding in the Asian session. The price moved above the 100 hour MA in the London/European session but stalled ahead of the overhead 200 hour MA at 1.18337 (green line - the high reached 1.18313).

The Washington Post reports that President Biden is meeting with holdout Democratic Senators Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema today at the White House. They'll meet separately with Sinema this morning and Manchin in the evening.

The USDJPY moved down sharply yesterday and in the process fell back below its 100 day moving average.  The pair also briefly moved below a floor area between 109.56 and 109.615.  However the close was above that swing area.

Sees ongoing virtuous cycle of corporate profits and investmentVirtuous cycle of corporate profits and business fixed investment will continue despite Virtuous cycle is operating particularly in manufacturing on the back of firm recovery overseasimpact of supply chain disruptions an factory shutdowns in South-East AsiaBOJ is committed to achieving 2% inflation target as early as possibleIf necessary, BOJ will further relax monetary policy such as by reducing interest ratesJapan's private consumption has remained stagnantExpects steady rise in inflation to 2%, though not before 2023Economy will recover with impact of covid waning due to vaccinations

There are some small signs of cooling here but import/export inflation has been very high. Much of that is being absorbed rather than passed onto consumers but that won't last forever.

prior report came in weaker than expected at 18.3% (was expecting 28.9%). The index is down from 43.0 in July.New orders 33.7 versus 14.8 in August.Prices paid 75.7 versus 76.1 in August.Prices received .Employment 20.5 versus 12.8 in August.Average workweek.Shipments 26.9 versus 4.4 last month.Unfilled orders 20.9 versus 15.0 last month.Delivery time 36.5 versus 28.3 last month.Inventories 11.3 versus 6.2 last month.

As North American traders enter for the day, the JPY is the strongest, while the NZD is the weakest.  The USD is mostly lower with small gain versus the AUD and NZD to start the NY session.  China economic data over night showed a slowing further in August led by Covid lockdowns. Retail sales slowing to 2.5% on the year was much lower than the 6.9% expected. Industrial growth also slowed more than expected to 5.3% from 8.4% last month. The China developer Evergrange Group is also reported to be on the verge of default. All of which helped to pressure China stocks which saw major indices moving lower. The Hang Seng index fell by -1.84%.  As US traders enter, the major stock indices are mixed. The NASDAQ has declined 5 consecutive days. It is up modestly in premarket trading. The S&P and NASDAQ have been down five of the last six trading days. The US yields are little changed with a modest flattening.  

Canadian CPI for August is due at the bottom of the hour and expected to show a 0.1% m/m rise and a 3.9% y/y increase. The three core measures of inflation are all expected to be steady in y/y terms with common at 1.7%, median at 2.6% and trimmed at 3.1%.

JPY leads, AUD and NZD lag on the dayEuropean equities mostly lower; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%US 10-year yields down 0.7 bps to 1.272%Gold down 0.2% to $1,801.10WTI up 1.3% to $71.37Bitcoin up 1.3% to $47,430

There has been rumours floating about on this for a few days now and it will begin after PMQs have concluded for today. It will be interesting to see which frontbenchers alongside Johnson are at risk of being cast out.

The firm says that they see risk of power blackouts for industries in Europe and that with a "harsh winter" nearing, there are risks of a greater surge in electricity and gas and that prices need to rise in order to reduce demand.

The jump in mortgage applications in the past week owes much to a surge in purchasing activity as refinancing activity declined heavily. There's still some mixed sentiment on the housing market that high prices are weighing on demand from new home buyers so we'll have to see how all of this plays out in the weeks/months ahead.

Demand conditions in Asia are expected to pick back up in Q4 and the market is slowly feeding into the hype of an expensive winter for energy in general, which should be supportive of fossil fuels sentiment and I'd argue that includes oil prices.

Even so, it doesn't hold too much significance as there aren't any key technical levels too close by. The key hourly moving averages are seen at 109.86-93 while the 100-day moving average is seen at 109.82 so those are more relevant battle lines for the pair.

The greenback did well to recover after the US CPI report yesterday but there is some slight softness today in European morning trade, though ranges among major currencies are still nothing extravagant or too significant for now.

As we know, there are two competing theories about how inflation will evolve over the coming months.

On the one hand, the central banks and governments insist that it will be transitory. On the other hand, traditional economists, and other economic "rebels" such as The Big Short's Michael Burry, suggest that inflation will be a new feature of the economic landscape.

Aside from which one we might agree with, both base their theories on specific data and events.

For there to be transitory or long-term inflation, certain conditions need to be met. So, if we want to try to preposition our portfolios (or, potentially hedge), it would be useful to understand the basics of both theories. And also, what are some of the road markers we need to look out for.

Why would inflation be transitory?

Perhaps the most controversial position is that inflation would be transitory in an environment of massive government spending. Particularly in the US, where a...

Trading in Forex goes 24 h a day, which means traders can always check up with the market and make trading operations. However, for successful intraday trading you need most volatile currency pairs, which will make your trading most efficient.

Volatility of a currency pair is an average number of points that the pair passes over a certain period. You can detect both intraday volatility and volatility during trading sessions. Note that the volatility of currency instruments in Forex also depends on the time of the day and geography. For example, EUR/USD will be much less volatile during the Asian session than during the European one. USD/JPY, on the contrary, is much more volatile during the Asian session.