- The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where is a number, is the consensus median expected.
- Mean five-years-ahead inflation expectations were slightly lower than last quarter’s value of 2.42%, coming in at 2.33%. The mean ten-years-ahead inflation expectation also saw a small change. The 2.13% figure posted this quarter represents just a two basis point rise from 2.11%. The Reserve Banks’ inflation target band is 1 – 3%.
Major FX was characterised by higher yen crosses during the opening session of the week. USD/JPY tested its Friday high circa 135.50 but did not manage to follow through up further. Meanwhile AUD, NZD rose against the USD. EUR, CAD and GBP are little changed on the session, as is CHF (all against the USD).U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitments of Traders Data (COT) from Friday (the data is up to date to Tuesday 2 August close of business).
For those interested Reuters have a summary piece up on the FX data. Net it shows a fall in USD long positions up until Tuesday close.
- Negotiations between Iran and the U.S. on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal are close to completion, the European Union’s senior negotiator at the talks said Sunday evening, but it remained unclear whether Tehran will accept the final deal.The text of an agreement could be closed in coming hours, said the EU’s Enrique Mora, the coordinator of the talks. However, Iran must still decide whether to set aside its demand that the nuclear deal can only be revived if a multiyear United Nations atomic agency probe into its nuclear program is closed.
- How people respond in an environment of high inflation will be influenced by their expectations of future inflation: high expectations mean greater tolerance of price increases and higher expectations for wage increases. Any signs that people’s long-term inflation expectations (5- and 10-year horizons) are lifting will be an added concern for the RBNZ. Elevated long-term inflation expectations would be yet another worry for the RBNZ. We expect the RBNZ to deliver a 50bp hike in August (without ruling out the possibility of a 75bp hike), taking the OCR to a peak of 3.75% by the end of this year.
- USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD/CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected is typically considered a signal from the PBOC.The previous close was 6.
The next jobs report (NFP) is due on September 2nd.
The 'but' in the headline to this post is another inflation print, the Federal Reserve's preferred indicator of prices, core PCE report. We've seen the June figures:
- RT @seandcallow: I’ll be discussing week ahead FX and macro themes on @ausbiztv shortly #ausbiz
ForexLive Mon 08 Aug 2022 00:05 USD/JPY caught a hug updraft after the US data on Friday. The NFP was strong all round and rekindled thoughts of further 75bp rate hikes ahead from the US Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ... while the Bank of Japan sits with its ultra easy policy.
USD/JPY is back on the 135 big figure and is sitting circa 125.10-odd as U update. Its just gone 9am in Tokyo and 8am in Singapore and Hong Kong. Asia is kicking off the session ahead.
EUR traders will be keeping an eye on Italian politics ahead of the September 25 election.
Italian politics are volatile, an alliance formed late last week has been called off already:
- Crude oil recorded its biggest weekly decline since early April amid rising concerns of weaker demand. Demand indicators have largely held up, with global air travel improving as international borders are reopened. However, there are signs that high prices have taken the edge off gasoline and distillate demand. US gasoline demand was down around 7% y/y in July. China’s zero-COVID strategy is pushing its recovery further out. We have subsequently revised our short-term oil demand forecast for 2022 and 2023 down by 0.3 and 0.5mb/d, respectively. Oil demand for 2022 is now estimated to rise by 1.8mb/d year-on-year to settle at 99.7mb/d, just short of pre-pandemic highs.
- In the past 24 hours, we had a trade idea to short bitcoin. But we are aborting.Why is the trading plan scrapped? This decision offers traders some fascinating information. After initiating trades, traders should check for important signals Sticking to the original trade notion is usually a good option. Here we have got an exception to the rule. Ethereum, which influences Bitcoin, has broken out of the bull flag and is maintaining strength (so no failed break out yet). And it's above the 20 EMA, as shown in the video. Futures (ES, NQ, RTY, YM) have opened and a breakthrough the indices might unleash another crypto surge. ETHUSD remaining above the broken bull flag is enough. If price returns to the channel and a 4hr candle closes inside it, the bearish assumption may be revisited. Traders must be flexible and limit losses. In this situation, we quit the previos short idea promptly with a loss of 0.7%, or 3.5% at 5:1 leverage. In leveraged crypto trading, this is...
GS suggest that the wage data is showing wage growth still at a strong level, clearing up doubt for the Federal Reserve. The Fed is looking for wage growth to ease back a little, and the data show it is not.
- numbers should mollify recession fears but amplify concerns that the Fed has a lot more work to dowe now think a 75 basis point hike in September looks likely. The inflation worries motivating the Fed will only be heightened by this jobs report
- Above expectations will feed into the NZD as a bullish factor at the margin (and vice versa). The RBNZ is in a rate hike cycle due to higher than target CPI. The next RBNZ rate hike is due August 17 (NZ time).
The calendar focus today will be for New Zealand dollar traders, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand data due at 0300 GMT. RBNZ inflation expectations can be a market mover. Above expectations will feed into the NZD as a bullish factor at the margin (and vice versa). The RBNZ is in a rate hike cycle due to higher than target CPI. The next RBNZ rate hike is due August 17 (NZ time).
Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so. Post 'em if ya got 'em! t
- The leader of Italy's centrist Azione party said on Sunday it would leave a centre-left election alliance it formed with the Democratic Party (PD) last week, dealing a blow to the coalition's odds ahead of a Sept. 25 ballot.The Green leftist federation and centrist party Impegno Civico had only the day before agreed to join the PD-led bloc, a move that was seen as strengthening a centre-left already lagging behind conservative rivals.
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