A bullish jobs report against a very sleepy bond market: 943k NFP 703k change in private payrolls, with upward revision UR down to 5.4% from 5.9% AHE up to 4.0% https://t.co/aXAZN7CGg3
Alberto Gallo Fri 06 Aug 2021 12:33- If you hold US 10yr Treasuries you now are now giving up 1.2% per year vs expected inflation: #QEinfinity https://t.co/vnVcV5B4mv Alberto Gallo Wed 04 Aug 2021 10:10
- RT @nntaleb: Finance is extremely straightforward before your lose money. Alberto Gallo Sun 01 Aug 2021 15:43
- RT @huwsteenis: As central banks go green, which measures will be the most important? For my money it’s the climate stress tests. These… Alberto Gallo Thu 17 Jun 2021 11:27
- Fed dot plot signals two hikes in 2023, upgrades 2021 GDP and forecasts three years of inflation at/above target. UST yield +5bp, USD stronger and carry trades down. It's only slightly hawkish, but market complacency means everyone is/was on the same side of the boat. https://t.co/gCNZHEKjAE Alberto Gallo Wed 16 Jun 2021 18:12
- RT @lisaabramowicz1: Credit risk and interest-rate risk are increasingly intertwined, creating a potential downward vortex if/when rates ri… Alberto Gallo Tue 15 Jun 2021 19:21
- After a strong dovish turn, @tp_pan's model shows individual FOMC member speeches have been turning a bit more hawkish recently - and yesterday, the Fed announced tapering of its credit holdings. The next NFP and FOMC press conference will be very interesting ones. https://t.co/ikJRqEVY90 Alberto Gallo Thu 03 Jun 2021 07:34
- Fed to start unwinding its $13.8bn corporate bond portfolio ($8.6bn in credit ETFs and $5.2bn in single bonds). Meanwhile, credit markets run at razor-thin valuations, as most sell-side research calls for dancing until the music stops. This is going to be fun, folks https://t.co/E9IiWyamSP Alberto Gallo Wed 02 Jun 2021 21:48
- New ECB publication on international role of the Euro warns against central banks not offering a digital currency: Link #QEinfinity https://t.co/BKHQMLQEBK Alberto Gallo Wed 02 Jun 2021 13:53
This 20th annual review of the international role of the euro published by the European Central Bank presents an overview of developments in the use of the euro by non-euro area residents.
The report covers developments in 2020. This period was characterised by the outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, a contraction in global economic activity unprecedented in living memory and exceptional global policy support. On balance, however, these developments did not result in a significant change in the international role of the euro. In particular, the euro’s share in outstanding international loans, in the stock of international debt securities and as an invoicing currency for extra-euro area imports of goods remained broadly stable. The share of the euro in global foreign exchange reserves declined, as did the share of the euro in foreign currency-denominated debt issuance and in outstanding international deposits. The euro remained a key currency in...
- US 10-year inflation swaps have broken out above 2.5%. Later today, the Fed will argue that the recent change in prices as well as in expectations is temporary. Will markets believe it? https://t.co/Jc2K0Nlf1z Alberto Gallo Wed 28 Apr 2021 13:11
- The last @ecb lending survey showed downstream credit conditions still relatively tight, while upstream (sovereign/corporate bonds) risk premia are at record tight. How do you think about unclogging the transmission channel to get credit going to SMEs? #askecb @Isabel_Schnabel https://t.co/ezmgh6fz7I Alberto Gallo Wed 28 Apr 2021 12:01
- How does the @ecb react to a scenario where inflation is near-target but growth remains slow? E.g. the emergence of supply-side inflation from bottlenecks (supply chain disruption/ delays) + geopolitical risk (production onshoring). #askecb @Isabel_Schnabel Alberto Gallo Wed 28 Apr 2021 11:56
- The risks of traditional, long-only bond investing during times of #QEinfinity - by veteran investor Dan Fuss @FT Link https://t.co/cgyXlZmIi2 Alberto Gallo Tue 27 Apr 2021 11:35
- RT @lisaabramowicz1: U.S. companies are raising prices to offset increasing input costs. “Inflation is taking hold, there’s no doubt about… Alberto Gallo Mon 26 Apr 2021 15:39
- One year ago the junk bond market was in panic, pricing in that half of its companies would go bust. Today, we are at near-record low spreads: 2.9% https://t.co/CjFu7AwPCo Alberto Gallo Thu 15 Apr 2021 11:16
- Erdogan's withdrawal from the Istanbul convention and the ousting of central bank head Agbal confirm his intention to push #Turkey's society away from democracy and its economy away from free markets. Alberto Gallo Sat 20 Mar 2021 12:50
- However, rising correlations between risky and risk-free assets decrease diversification benefits and increase risk in a balanced portfolio, all else equal. This also means that while usually the central bank put protects investors, extreme events happen when it doesn't. https://t.co/tIesNdS6La Alberto Gallo Fri 19 Mar 2021 12:54
- Another reason is not only bonds, but all asset classes are impacted. As central banks bought assets over the past decade, their liquidity lifted up all boats: both bonds and stocks went higher. Investors didn't worry about rising correlations. https://t.co/5crTztjo81 Alberto Gallo Fri 19 Mar 2021 12:54
- One reason is bond investors have been very long duration over the past decade, supported by central bank #QEinfinity. This means that even a small amount of widening is enough to wipe out a year of carry. Today, the wipe-out buffer for $ triple-B bonds is at 100-year lows. https://t.co/BUhAHuHvgV Alberto Gallo Fri 19 Mar 2021 12:54
- The selloff in Treasuries is making headlines around the world. Why is it so important? (Thread) Alberto Gallo Fri 19 Mar 2021 12:54
- RT @huwsteenis: Climate change won't be stopped by 593 pages of Green Tape Like with its botched vaccination campaign, the EU risks being… Alberto Gallo Thu 18 Mar 2021 08:33
- Today's Fed press conference brings some certainty on short end yields and some relief to QE/carry trades (IG credit, tech stocks, EM currencies). That said, record high fiscal stimulus will continue to put pressure on long-term yields. The Fed has won a battle, not the war. Alberto Gallo Wed 17 Mar 2021 20:53
- *POWELL: RATES WERE AT ZERO FOR 7 YRS WITHOUT FINANCIAL EXCESSES #NothingToSeeHere https://t.co/IhD3fppvqM Alberto Gallo Wed 17 Mar 2021 19:23
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