Out of over $70 Trillions of bonds outstanding, only *four* percent yield > 5%. If the $ depreciates and inflation rises, where will the money go? #QEinfinity #SilverBullet Link https://t.co/oTY9vAdHmW
Alberto Gallo Wed 22 Jul 2020 08:38“The lesson of history, then, is that even as institutions and policy makers improve, there will always be a temptation to stretch the limits. Just as an individual can go bankrupt no matter how rich she starts out, a financial system can collapse under the pressure of greed, politics, and profits no matter how well regulated it seems to be.“
Carmen M. Reinhart, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly
- Are bond investors frogs in a boiling pot? Inflation is social and political, before being a monetary phenomenon. In our last #SilverBullet letter, we discuss risks to markets from US elections, the upside from today's #EUCO deal and navigating H2 2020. Link https://t.co/A3Gl2EzqeQ Alberto Gallo Tue 21 Jul 2020 12:52
“The lesson of history, then, is that even as institutions and policy makers improve, there will always be a temptation to stretch the limits. Just as an individual can go bankrupt no matter how rich she starts out, a financial system can collapse under the pressure of greed, politics, and profits no matter how well regulated it seems to be.“
Carmen M. Reinhart, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly
- #EUCO deal: - €750bn: €360bn loans / €390bn grants - Budget rebates to frugal countries - Conditionality assessed by qualified majority Link https://t.co/gRQtPJHu6p Alberto Gallo Tue 21 Jul 2020 05:57
- "The foreign office is pro Europe because it is really anti Europe" There finally is a #EUCO deal. Britain wasn't at the negotiating table - but are other countries trying to take its place? Link Alberto Gallo Mon 20 Jul 2020 18:36
- A chart is worth a thousand words: #EUCO https://t.co/JDhzBk6qyA Alberto Gallo Mon 20 Jul 2020 04:26
- What are tax havens? Some questions answered: - Yes, corporate tax revenues otherwise collected can be 'lost' through loopholes, to the benefit of owners. - No, tax havens are not part of good regular capitalism via @TLDRNewsUK #EUCO Link Alberto Gallo Sun 19 Jul 2020 20:01
- Tax dumping/tax havens get defended in the name of economic liberalism. This argument keeps failing. No-rules capitalism isn't capitalism. It generates inequality, low productivity and eventually unhappiness. The old model is broken. The EU exists to level the playing field. Link Alberto Gallo Sun 19 Jul 2020 17:20
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- EU budget net contributions, 2010-2018 €BN DE -179 FR -90 UK -83 IT -61 NL -42 SE -24 BE -19 AT -13 DK -12 FI -6 LU -1 CY 0 MT 1 SI 5 EE 6 LV 9 IE 13 BG 15 LT 17 SK 17 CZ 31 RO 35 HU 45 PT 52 ES 81 EL 83 PL 117 Alberto Gallo Sun 19 Jul 2020 14:30
- How much have EU countries paid or received from the EU? Eighteen years of data show the money has been flowing from West to East, not North to South (Source: Link) https://t.co/y86UvJHDHM Alberto Gallo Sun 19 Jul 2020 06:50
- Tax lost from firms domiciled in the Netherlands, per year: France: €2.7bn Germany: €1.5bn Italy: €1.5bn Spain: €1bn Dutch net contribution to EU budget in 2018: €2.375bn (Sources: EU, Tax Justice Network) Alberto Gallo Sun 19 Jul 2020 06:00
- The frugal four, led by Dutch PM Rutte, want vero power on #EUco #recoveryfund. They argue Southern countries spend lavishly: but some of them had primary surpluses for several years pre crisis. Instead, core countries benefited mostly from a low € (see Link) https://t.co/05tzZ0AthQ Alberto Gallo Sat 18 Jul 2020 12:24
- Which countries have been net contributors vs receivers of EU funds? Surprising for some, ?? has been a net giver, while the balance for ?? has been flat. Grants under the #EUco #recoveryfund are far from a gift - but can be seen as a few years of contributions given back. https://t.co/nz7yuHMotr Alberto Gallo Sat 18 Jul 2020 11:54
- RT @heimbergecon: Dutch PM Rutte wants national veto on reforms in ?? et al. ??have cost EU countries $10bn in lost corporate tax a year.… Alberto Gallo Sat 18 Jul 2020 11:44
- #Inflation expectations in the @UMich survey are rising 3.1% in one year (blue) and 2.7% in 5-10 years (white) Meanwhile, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are near record lows, at 0.62% (red) Are bondholders frogs in a pot? Hope for the best, but prepare for financial repression https://t.co/3yir9YYmCK Alberto Gallo Fri 17 Jul 2020 16:04
- RT @heimbergecon: "Frugal four" have been lecturing Italy. Please tell them that ??recorded a primary budget SURPLUS (excl interest payment… Alberto Gallo Fri 17 Jul 2020 14:29
- RT @ftopinion: FT View: Reality punctures Britain’s Brexit balloon Link Alberto Gallo Fri 17 Jul 2020 09:23
- Will Europe unlock more monetary and fiscal stimulus? Discussing hopes vs reality on the @ecb decision and the euro leaders' summit with @tomkeene and @FerroTV on @BloombergTV https://t.co/3D1eL7stZ9 Alberto Gallo Thu 16 Jul 2020 11:43
- Government bond investors face no returns and no opportunities in Japan-style environment:@FT. (The answers: credit, inflation linked debt and gold) Link Alberto Gallo Thu 16 Jul 2020 05:22
- The latest @ecb lending survey shows banks sharply tightened lending standards to firms in Q2 - particularly in Spain, Italy and France. The ECB expects a recovery in Q3. Link https://t.co/bejkS4L2Wq Alberto Gallo Tue 14 Jul 2020 10:56
The results reported in the July 2020 bank lending survey (BLS) relate to changes observed during the second quarter of 2020 and expectations for the third quarter of 2020. The survey was conducted between 5 and 23 June 2020. A total of 144 banks were surveyed in this round, with a response rate of 100%. In addition to results for the euro area as a whole, this report also contains results for the four largest euro area countries.[1]
A number of ad hoc questions were included in the July 2020 survey. They look at the impact that the situation in financial markets has had on banks’ access to retail and wholesale funding, the impact of banks’ non-performing loan (NPL) ratios on lending policies as well as the change in bank lending conditions and loan demand across all main sectors of economic activities.
- The Netherlands, leader of the frugal four, ranks 4th globally as a tax avoidance centre, with EU countries losing over $10bn in taxes. Today's @FT editorial points out - too kindly - PM Rutte's fragile attempt to take the high moral ground: Link https://t.co/hlU5G5ocBT Alberto Gallo Mon 13 Jul 2020 14:50
- Covid mobility update: European countries are nearly back to normal (pre Covid = 100%). UK is still improving but mroe slowly. The US is stuck. Source: Apple ground mobility trends. https://t.co/QiPBIMNnNb Alberto Gallo Sun 12 Jul 2020 09:39
- In a world of negative yields, getting zero is #Gold. https://t.co/HW8wVF3C7b Alberto Gallo Wed 08 Jul 2020 13:50
- In a world of negative real yields, gold's zero return is a positive. #QEinfinity https://t.co/fFsrajUirt Alberto Gallo Wed 08 Jul 2020 13:40
- RT @ojblanchard1: In the name of covid, a naked attack by the administration on foreign students and universities. (and, with lower educati… Alberto Gallo Tue 07 Jul 2020 06:44
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