• Federal Reserve officials last month indicated they were on track to begin reversing their easy-money policies later this year, despite lingering differences over when exactly to pull back support for the economy. Link
    Real Time Economics Wed 18 Aug 2021 19:20

    Federal Reserve officials last month indicated they were on track to begin reversing their easy-money policies later this year, despite lingering differences over when exactly to pull back support for an economy growing more rapidly than expected earlier this year.

    Minutes of their July 27-28 Fed meeting, released Wednesday, shed light on an emerging consensus to begin scaling back their $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage securities at any of their three remaining policy meetings this year.

    “Most participants noted that, provided that the economy were to evolve broadly as they anticipated, they judged that it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year,” the minutes said.

    The minutes said several officials favored reducing asset purchases in the coming months in order to better position the Fed to potentially raise rates if the economy strengthens further next year, while others thought the Fed...

  • Texas city’s job growth and cultural appeal attracting buyers ready to pay $100,000 or more above asking price Link
    Real Time Economics Wed 18 Aug 2021 18:50

    AUSTIN, Texas—A homebuying frenzy is gripping much of the U.S., but Austin takes the prize for the biggest increase in homes selling well above the asking price.

    Nearly 2,700 homes in the Texas capital have sold this year for $100,000 or more above their initial listing price, according to an analysis by Redfin Corp. that examined sales through Aug. 11. While a few other U.S. cities have had more properties sell at that premium to the asking price, none have experienced as big a percent rise in homes transacting at that lofty an increase, Redfin said.

    “As a consumer, it seems scary to be in a housing market where the home you’re looking at [is] priced at $400,000, then, when you go to put in an offer, you realize the true price is $500,000,” Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather said.

    The number of homes sold year-over-year for at least $100,000 over asking price has grown nearly 10-fold in Seattle, and fivefold in Oakland, according to Redfin. In...

  • Minutes from the Fed’s July 27-28 meeting show officials debating the timing and mechanics of easing efforts to stimulate the economy Link
    Real Time Economics Wed 18 Aug 2021 18:10

    Federal Reserve officials ramped up deliberations last month over how and when to start pulling back their extraordinary support for an economy growing more rapidly than they expected earlier this year.

    Minutes of their July 27-28 Fed meeting, released Wednesday, also shed light on how policy makers judged the risk that inflation would run above their 2% target for longer than they had anticipated.

    Fed officials have been seeking consensus on whether to begin scaling back their $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage securities.

    Fed officials expected a temporary burst in inflation as the economy struggles to supply enough goods and services to keep up with demand this year. But the spurt has been stronger and broader based than officials expected. On a 12-month basis, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, after excluding volatile food and energy categories, rose 3.5% in June, a 30-year high.

    The Fed cut interest rates to zero...

  • “The most important thing about this is that the economy has clearly adapted to the pandemic situation,” the St. Louis Fed president said Link
    Real Time Economics Wed 18 Aug 2021 17:45

    Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis leader James Bullard doesn’t expect the surge in Covid-19 cases tied to the Delta variant to derail a robust U.S. economic recovery.

    “We do track the pandemic every day. We’re still in a crisis and we do have to, you know, be nimble,” Mr. Bullard said Wednesday in a virtual appearance hosted by MarketWatch. “The most important thing about this is that the economy has clearly adapted to the pandemic situation,” the official said, and that suggests it can weather the current surge.

    “You’ve...

  • Declining travel bookings. Delayed office re-openings. Slower production of Pringles. The Delta variant is leaving a mark on business. Link
    Real Time Economics Wed 18 Aug 2021 17:00

    Repercussions from the Delta variant of Covid-19 are starting to ripple across companies, raising staffing costs in senior housing, disrupting production of potato chips and leading some companies to rein in profit projections.

    Still unclear: whether the highly contagious strain of the virus will be a momentary stumble in an improving global economy—one that businesses and consumers are now better equipped to handle—or something more serious.

    In recent weeks, Kellogg Co. said Delta’s spread in Malaysia slowed production of Pringles there. Online travel company Booking Holdings Inc. said overall bookings declined as Delta took root in July. U.S. healthcare companies say elective medical procedures are slowing once again in some places.

    And, as more employers postpone their return to offices, the outlook is darkening for such disparate companies as a 25-person Houston cable installer and a company with a $1.3 billion market-capitalization that sells...

  • "It seems like it is just a bust." Small-business confidence dropped in August to its lowest level since March as the Delta variant saps momentum Link
    Real Time Economics Wed 18 Aug 2021 16:00

    Small-business confidence dropped in August to its lowest level since early spring, as the rise in Covid-19 cases due to the highly transmissible Delta variant put a damper on expectations and turned entrepreneurs more cautious.

    Thirty-nine percent of small-business owners expect economic conditions in the U.S. to improve in the next 12 months, down from 50% in July and 67% in March, according to a survey of more than 560 small businesses for The Wall Street Journal by Vistage Worldwide Inc., a business coaching and peer advisory firm.

    The measure is one part of a broader confidence index that also tracks metrics such as small-business owners’ outlook for their companies and their investment and hiring plans. That overall figure remains positive, but fell to its lowest level since March.

    At Wizard Studios, an event production company with 25 employees, bookings jumped in May after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lifted mask mandates. The...

  • RT @greg_ip: Financial regulation is inherently more political than monetary policy. So even though banks have gotten safer under Fed Chair…
    Real Time Economics Wed 18 Aug 2021 14:55
  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s shot at another term is threatened by progressive Democrats whose priority is a more activist Fed on regulation Link
    Real Time Economics Wed 18 Aug 2021 14:10

    If the Federal Reserve’s management of the economy were all that mattered, Chairman Jerome Powell would probably be cruising toward reappointment. His response to the pandemic and focus on full employment have drawn bipartisan praise.

    But the Fed is also a financial regulator, an inherently more political role than monetary policy. Mr. Powell’s shot at another term when this one expires in February is now threatened by progressive Democrats whose priority is a more activist Fed on regulation and other nonmonetary matters.

    Mr. Powell almost certainly has enough votes from both parties to be confirmed; the question is whether the holdouts can persuade President Biden to nominate someone else. Last week The Wall Street Journal reported that Mr. Biden’s economic team generally supports giving Mr. Powell a second term, but resistance from Democrats including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) could lead to his replacement. “Over and over and over he has weakened a...

  • The Biden administration last week canceled bulk shipments of dollars headed for Afghanistan as Taliban fighters were poised to take control of Kabul Link
    Real Time Economics Wed 18 Aug 2021 13:35

    WASHINGTON—The Biden administration last week canceled bulk shipments of dollars headed for Afghanistan as Taliban fighters were poised to take control of the capital city of Kabul, part of a continuing scramble to keep hundreds of millions of dollars out of the hands of the terrorist group, according to people familiar with the matter.

    The U.S. is also blocking Taliban access to government accounts managed by the Federal Reserve and other U.S. banks and working to prevent the group’s access to nearly half-billion dollars-worth of reserves at the International Monetary Fund, according to those people.

    The actions represent the last vestiges of diplomatic leverage Washington hopes will help prevent a deepening political and humanitarian crisis.

    “Any central bank assets the Afghan government has in the United States will not be made available to the Taliban,” a Biden administration official said.

    As the Taliban took over several provincial areas...

  • In a world where office workers are rarely in the office, some are taking a second full-time job on the sly. Keeping two gigs straight can be a challenge. Link
    Real Time Economics Wed 18 Aug 2021 12:50

    They were bored. Or worried about layoffs. Or tired of working hard for a meager raise every year. They got another job offer.

    Now they have a secret.

    A small, dedicated group of white-collar workers, in industries from tech to banking to insurance, say they have found a way to double their pay: Work two full-time remote jobs, don’t tell anyone and, for the most part, don’t do too much work, either.

    Alone in their home offices, they toggle between two laptops. They play “Tetris” with their calendars, trying to dodge endless meetings. Sometimes they log on to two meetings at once. They use paid time off—in some cases, unlimited—to juggle the occasional big project or ramp up at a new gig. Many say they don’t work more than 40 hours a week for both jobs combined. They don’t apologize for taking advantage of a system they feel has taken advantage of them.

    “It’s two jobs for one,” says a 29-year-old software engineer who has been working...

  • Median rent has risen more than 10% over the past year, according to Apartment List, reflecting how soaring housing prices are forcing many would-be home buyers out of the for-sale market. Link
    Real Time Economics Wed 18 Aug 2021 11:45

    Apartment rents are rising fast, boosted by young professionals returning to cities and an expensive housing market that keeps many of them renting.

    Stock prices of publicly traded apartment companies have jumped in stride. The FTSE Nareit Equity Apartments index, which tracks these landlords, is up 42% since January, trouncing the S&P 500’s 17% gain during the same period.

    Median rent has risen more than 10% over the past year $1,244, according to homesearch website Apartment List. That figure is also 9.4% above where rents stood in March 2020, right before Covid-19 lockdowns began.

    One big factor behind the recent increase: Soaring housing prices are forcing many would-be home buyers out of the for-sale market, and they have had little choice but to pay up for rent. As of June, median existing-home sales prices are up 23.4% from a year earlier to $363,300—a record high, according to the National Association of Realtors.

    Job losses at the...

  • The Birmingham, Ala., area’s tight labor market masks racial disparities in employment and income between the metro area, with 1.1 million residents, and the city, with 210,000 residents Link
    Real Time Economics Wed 18 Aug 2021 10:45

    The metropolitan area competing for the tightest labor market in the nation isn’t a tech hub on the West Coast, or a boomtown in Texas. It is Birmingham, Ala., a southern city with an unemployment rate that is nearly half the national level and similar to Salt Lake City’s.

    Birmingham, the most populous metro area in Alabama, had the second-lowest unemployment rate of metropolitan areas with more than one million people in June, according to the Labor Department’s latest rankings. Its seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for that month was 3.1%, near its pre-pandemic level of 2.4% in February 2020, and slightly above Salt Lake City’s 2.8% rate for June. Birmingham’s June unemployment rate was lower than other southern cities such as Atlanta, Charlotte and Houston—and compares with July’s national rate of 5.4%.

    Economists say the city’s diversified economy, Alabama’s relatively relaxed Covid-19 restrictions and resilient consumer behavior have helped the...

  • “If it doesn’t work, I’ll be bankrupt.” A small business experiments with higher wages, with some early positive results. Link
    Real Time Economics Wed 18 Aug 2021 09:45

    CLEVELAND—Charlie Braun long wondered whether paying higher wages would ease staffing shortages at his rubber parts factory, or simply push it into financial trouble. The Covid-19 pandemic provided a rare opportunity to experiment.

    With an $879,000 forgivable loan from the federal Paycheck Protection Program as a cushion, Mr. Braun raised wages for some employees three times this year. Starting pay for machine operators, the toughest position to fill, jumped by $4.55 to $18.25 an hour, and to $19 for the night shift.

    The early signs appear favorable, if initially bumpy. Custom Rubber Corp.’s head count climbed to 124 in July from 91 at the end of January. Profit margins hovered between 5% and 6% in recent months, roughly double the 3% the company had come to expect in a good year.

    Labor costs, including taxes and benefits, now account for about 17% of sales, up from 12% eight years ago. But the extra labor has helped CRC to fill more orders, and sales...

  • Worthless currency, 40 percent unemployment, brawls over milk, murder over gasoline. Lebanon is in economic freefall. “May God save the country.” Link
    Real Time Economics Wed 18 Aug 2021 08:45

    BEIRUT—In recent decades Lebanon has been a place of relative calm in a turbulent region. Now it is living through a once-in-a-century economic meltdown.

    The collapse, rippling through all levels of society, has been accelerated by the lasting effects of the explosion in the Port of Beirut one year ago today.

    Power outages have become so frequent that restaurants time their hours to the schedule of electricity from private generators. Brawls have erupted in supermarkets as shoppers rush to buy bread, sugar, and cooking oil before they run out or hyperinflation topping 400% for food puts the prices out of reach. Medical professionals have fled just as the pandemic hammers the country with a new wave of infections. Thefts are up 62% and murder rates are rising fast.

    In May, Gaith Masri, a 24-year-old law student and gas-station attendant from northern Lebanon, was shot dead after a scuffle with a customer when he refused to go beyond a rationing limit....

  • America's white population shrank for the first time, census data show, as the U.S. diversified and grew rapidly in the South and Southwest Link
    Real Time Economics Wed 18 Aug 2021 07:45

    The first detailed results of the 2020 census show a diversifying nation where the total white population shrank for the first time in its history and where large metropolitan areas, especially in the South and Southwest, saw the strongest growth.

    The non-Hispanic white population dropped 2.6% between 2010 and 2020, a decline that puts that group’s share of the total U.S. population below 60%. The number of people who identify as more than one race or ethnicity grew at the fastest rate of any group, partly due to changes that captured more detailed responses.

    The nation’s population grew just 7.4% during the decade, the second slowest on record for a decennial census. Only the 1930s—the era of the Great Depression—saw slower growth. Slightly more than half, or 51%, of the total U.S. population growth in the latest period came from increases among Hispanic or Latino residents, the Census Bureau said.

    The new data show an overall aging of the nation’s...

  • Retail sales fell 1.1% in July from the month before, with spending down broadly across categories as concerns about the Delta variant grew Link
    Real Time Economics Wed 18 Aug 2021 06:39

    Spending at U.S. retailers fell sharply in July, amid cooling purchases of goods and signs of some pullback in consumer demand as U.S. Covid-19 cases tied to the Delta variant rose.

    Retail sales—a measure of purchases at stores, at restaurants and online—fell 1.1% last month compared with June, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Excluding autos—a category where supply-chain issues have limited available inventory—sales declined 0.4%.

    Tuesday’s report suggested Americans continued to shift spending toward services in July. Sales dropped across several categories, primarily autos—which was down 3.9%—but also clothing, sporting goods and furniture. The retail-sales figures capture spending mostly on goods, and don’t include services such as travel, entertainment and recreation.

    Restaurants and bars were a bright spot, with sales rising 1.7% over the month, while sales at nonstore retailers—a proxy for online retail sales—fell 3.1%.

    Retail...

  • Covid-19 travel restrictions are keeping out Mexican tourists who patronize many businesses on the U.S. side of the border. ‘We need our customers back,’ says a Texas store owner. Link
    Real Time Economics Wed 18 Aug 2021 05:39

    EL PASO, Texas—When the Covid-19 pandemic caused the U.S.-Mexico border to shut down in the spring of 2020, many retail and other businesses on the U.S. side lost a swath of customers. Gregoria Flores is still waiting for their return.

    Ms. Flores’ store, Novedades Yeya’s, sits a few blocks away from the Paso del Norte port of entry in downtown El Paso. She estimates that before border restrictions banned nonessential travel, about 90% of her customers were Mexican nationals from the neighboring city of Ciudad Juárez  who would regularly cross into El Paso to shop, eat or visit family.

    Now, the stretch of South El Paso Street where Ms. Flores’s shop is located sees fewer border crossers than in pre-pandemic times, and further away from the port, foot traffic is sparser, she, other business owners and employees said.

    While retail, restaurants and other establishments have been springing back to life across much of the U.S. as more people get...

  • Covid-19 travel restrictions are keeping out Mexican tourists who patronize many businesses on the U.S. side of the border. ‘We need our customers back,’ says a Texas store owner. Link
    Real Time Economics Wed 18 Aug 2021 04:39

    EL PASO, Texas—When the Covid-19 pandemic caused the U.S.-Mexico border to shut down in the spring of 2020, many retail and other businesses on the U.S. side lost a swath of customers. Gregoria Flores is still waiting for their return.

    Ms. Flores’ store, Novedades Yeya’s, sits a few blocks away from the Paso del Norte port of entry in downtown El Paso. She estimates that before border restrictions banned nonessential travel, about 90% of her customers were Mexican nationals from the neighboring city of Ciudad Juárez  who would regularly cross into El Paso to shop, eat or visit family.

    Now, the stretch of South El Paso Street where Ms. Flores’s shop is located sees fewer border crossers than in pre-pandemic times, and further away from the port, foot traffic is sparser, she, other business owners and employees said.

    While retail, restaurants and other establishments have been springing back to life across much of the U.S. as more people get...

  • The Biden administration unveiled the largest-ever increase in food-stamp benefits. USDA said the average monthly SNAP benefit would increase by $36 a person to $169. Link
    Real Time Economics Wed 18 Aug 2021 03:39

    The Biden administration unveiled the largest-ever increase in food-stamp benefits, boosting federal nutrition assistance after hunger surged in America during the coronavirus pandemic.

    Following a review of the plan governing the nation’s food-stamp program, or Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said the average monthly SNAP benefit would increase by $36 a person to $169. The increase, which totals $1.19 a day, reflects higher costs for a nutritious diet, the USDA said on Monday.

    The change, set to take effect on Oct. 1, marks a more than 25% jump from what participants would have received once temporary pandemic assistance ends. Before the pandemic, beneficiaries on average received $121 a month, the USDA said, though that amount swelled due to temporary coronavirus-related measures. SNAP helps to feed more than 42 million Americans, and the benefit increase is the biggest in the program’s nearly 60-year...

  • RBNZ Keeps Cash Rate Unchanged After Latest Lockdown Link
    Real Time Economics Wed 18 Aug 2021 02:34

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its policy rate unchanged at a record low, as an outbreak of the Covid-19 Delta variant upends daily life and threatens to set back the economic recovery.

    The central bank on Wednesday said the economy no longer needs the current level of monetary stimulus, but it decided to keep the cash rate at 0.25% for now because of uncertainty stemming from the virus outbreak.

    New...

  • America's white population shrank for the first time, census data show, as the U.S. diversified and grew rapidly in the South and Southwest Link
    Real Time Economics Wed 18 Aug 2021 01:39

    The first detailed results of the 2020 census show a diversifying nation where the total white population shrank for the first time in its history and where large metropolitan areas, especially in the South and Southwest, saw the strongest growth.

    The non-Hispanic white population dropped 2.6% between 2010 and 2020, a decline that puts that group’s share of the total U.S. population below 60%. The number of people who identify as more than one race or ethnicity grew at the fastest rate of any group, partly due to changes that captured more detailed responses.

    The nation’s population grew just 7.4% during the decade, the second slowest on record for a decennial census. Only the 1930s—the era of the Great Depression—saw slower growth. Slightly more than half, or 51%, of the total U.S. population growth in the latest period came from increases among Hispanic or Latino residents, the Census Bureau said.

    The new data show an overall aging of the nation’s...

  • Women are increasingly working in heavy-labor industries due to a shortage of male laborers, offering them new freedoms but also burdens that men don’t have Link
    Real Time Economics Wed 18 Aug 2021 00:39

    Zhang Jianli used to hire only male workers on his construction sites throughout Chifeng, Inner Mongolia, specifying in online job ads, “Women workers please don’t contact us.” Now with abundant work but not enough hands, Mr. Zhang says he has relented.

    He now offers daily wages of about 160 yuan, roughly $25, for women workers to move wood and bricks, about one-fifth less than their male peers, and up to 200 yuan a day for urgent jobs. His ads say that both men and women can apply.

    “They work hard and have few complaints,” Mr. Zhang said of the women he hires, most in their 40s and 50s.

    Chinese women are increasingly taking on heavy-labor jobs long dominated by men in construction, transportation and other sectors, bucking traditional gender roles in China’s vast workforce.

    A labor shortage caused by low birthrates and an aging population is pushing employers to recruit more women to build high-rises, maintain rail tracks and drive trucks, among...

  • Spring and summer seemed to promise a rapid, uninterrupted economic recovery. Now the Delta variant may be changing the outlook. Link
    Real Time Economics Tue 17 Aug 2021 23:34

    Repercussions from the Delta variant of Covid-19 are starting to ripple across companies, raising staffing costs in senior housing, disrupting production of potato chips and leading some companies to rein in profit projections.

    Still unclear: whether the highly contagious strain of the virus will be a momentary stumble in an improving global economy—one that businesses and consumers are now better equipped to handle—or something more serious.

    In recent weeks, Kellogg Co. said Delta’s spread in Malaysia slowed production of Pringles there. Online travel company Booking Holdings Inc. said overall bookings declined as Delta took root in July. U.S. healthcare companies say elective medical procedures are slowing once again in some places.

    And, as more employers postpone their return to offices, the outlook is darkening for such disparate companies as a 25-person Houston cable installer and a company with a $1.3 billion market-capitalization that sells...

  • The U.S. and China are trading places in the economic growth race. The recent reversal in growth delays somewhat China’s prospective economic ascendancy. Link
    Real Time Economics Tue 17 Aug 2021 22:34

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  • Reducing bond buying sooner than currently anticipated could provide the Federal Reserve with more flexibility to raise interest rates if inflation stays high and unemployment falls rapidly Link
    Real Time Economics Tue 17 Aug 2021 21:29

    Federal Reserve officials are nearing agreement to begin scaling back their easy money policies in about three months if the economic recovery continues, with some pushing to end their asset-purchase program by the middle of next year.

    In recent interviews and public statements, several have advocated for this timetable, which would enable them to raise interest rates sooner than currently anticipated if the economy makes rapid progress toward their goals.

    The central bank last December said it would continue the current pace of bond purchases until officials concluded they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of 2% average inflation and robust employment.

    Officials at their July 27-28 meeting deliberated on two important questions: when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them. The Fed is set to release on...

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