• Engineers are building a bestiary of new robots to tackle every part of the cooking process—and maybe solve restaurants’ labor crunch in the process, columnist @mims writes Link
    Real Time Economics Tue 10 Aug 2021 01:41

    In a White Castle just southeast of Chicago, the 100-year-old purveyor of fast food has played host for the past year to an unusual, and unusually hardworking, employee: a robotic fry cook.

    Flippy, as the robot is known, is no gimmick, says Jamie Richardson, a White Castle vice president. It works 23 hours a day (one hour is reserved for cleaning) and has operated almost continuously for the past year, manning—or robot-ing—the fry station at White Castle No. 42 in Merrillville, Ind. An industrial robot arm sheathed in a grease-proof, white fabric sleeve, it slides along a rail attached to the ceiling, lifting and lowering each basket when ready, immune to spatters and spills. White Castle is so pleased with Flippy’s performance that, in partnership with its maker, Miso Robotics, the chain plans to roll out an improved version, Flippy 2.0, to 10 more of its restaurants across the country.

    There were more than 1.3 million unfilled job openings at restaurants and...

  • Don’t expect the infrastructure bill now making its way through Congress to have a big impact on economic growth in the next few years—but it could lead to long-term gains in productivity Link
    Real Time Economics Tue 10 Aug 2021 00:41

    WASHINGTON—The bipartisan infrastructure bill is unlikely to have a big impact on growth in the next few years, economists say. Longer term, though, investments in highways, ports and broadband could make the economy more efficient and productive.

    The short-term boost to growth will be relatively limited for two reasons, economists say. For one, the bill represents just $550 billion in new spending—compared with nearly $6 trillion that Congress has approved in the past year-and-a-half to battle the Covid-19 pandemic and its economic fallout.

    Second, the infrastructure spending will take place over five to 10 years starting in 2022, a longer timeline than pandemic-era initiatives like stimulus checks, extra unemployment benefits and small-business support programs. That will make its direct effects on employment and demand less noticeable.

    Alec Phillips, chief political economist for Goldman Sachs Research, said the infrastructure bill could add around...

  • Looking for work? There’s plenty available. Job openings rose above 10 million in June, exceeding the number of unemployed Americans. Link https://t.co/irPVUnNEUB
    Real Time Economics Mon 09 Aug 2021 23:41

    Available jobs in the U.S. rose to another record high at the end of June, pushing openings above the number of unemployed Americans seeking work, a sign of an unusually tight labor market.

    Unfilled job openings rose by 590,000 to a seasonally adjusted 10.1 million in June, the highest level since record-keeping began in 2000, the Labor Department said Monday. The increase was driven by industries such as professional and business services, retail and the accommodation and food services, as pandemic restrictions continued to ease that month and consumers were more willing to dine out and travel.

    The June increase in job openings came ahead of an uptick in cases tied to Covid-19’s Delta variant. Private measures of job postings through July showed openings remained elevated, though they began to plateau as hiring improved. The continued high number of openings indicates that the variant, so far, isn’t affecting hiring plans.

    The number of job openings in...

  • the rate at which workers quit their jobs, a proxy for confidence in the labor market, rose in June to just below the record high touched in April. Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 09 Aug 2021 22:56

    Available jobs in the U.S. rose to another record high at the end of June, pushing openings above the number of unemployed Americans seeking work, a sign of an unusually tight labor market.

    Unfilled job openings rose by 590,000 to a seasonally adjusted 10.1 million in June, the highest level since record-keeping began in 2000, the Labor Department said Monday. The increase was driven by industries such as professional and business services, retail and the accommodation and food services, as pandemic restrictions continued to ease that month and consumers were more willing to dine out and travel.

    The June increase in job openings came ahead of an uptick in cases tied to Covid-19’s Delta variant. Private measures of job postings through July showed openings remained elevated, though they began to plateau as hiring improved. The continued high number of openings indicates that the variant, so far, isn’t affecting hiring plans.

    The number of job openings in...

  • Economists at Fannie Mae forecast that by the end of 2022, housing could contribute 1 percentage point to core PCE inflation, the strongest contribution since 1990, and they forecast core inflation slowing to just 3% by then. Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 09 Aug 2021 22:16

    The biggest wildcard for U.S. inflation over the next year doesn’t come from used cars or airline fares. Instead, it is housing.

    Officials at the Federal Reserve and the White House have highlighted what many forecasters expect will be the temporary nature of elevated price readings stemming from the reopening of the economy following pandemic-related restrictions.

    But the degree to which 12-month inflation readings fall back to the central bank’s 2% goal could rest on the behavior of rents and home prices. In recent months, housing-cost trends point to more persistent, rather than transitory, upward price pressures in the coming years.

    Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 3.5% in June from a year earlier, according to the Fed’s preferred gauge, the personal-consumption expenditures price index. That was the highest rate of growth in 30 years. Rising prices over the April-to-June quarter largely reflected disrupted supply...

  • U.S. consumer prices are expected to advance at a slower pace in July than in June. Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 09 Aug 2021 21:46

    China’s producer-price index is expected to remain elevated in July after rising at its highest pace in nearly 13 years in May. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal are forecasting the PPI, a gauge of factory-gate prices, will increase 8.8% from a year earlier, the same as the prior month. The consumer-price index is expected to drop 0.8% on year due to plunging pork prices, compared with June’s 1.1% expansion.

  • President Biden signed an executive order allowing him to impose new costs on the government of Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 09 Aug 2021 21:11

    WASHINGTON—President Biden signed an executive order enhancing his ability to impose costs on the government of Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko along with new sanctions targeting individuals and business entities, including the country’s Olympic committee.

    The Biden administration timed the moves to the first anniversary of the country’s presidential elections, which faced allegations of election fraud and were followed by thousands of protesters in the streets of Minsk and charges of human-rights violations.

    The Belarus Embassy in Washington didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

    The announcement came a week after Belarusian sprinter Krystsina Tsimanouskaya resisted her team’s attempts to send her home from the Tokyo Olympic Games against her will. She received a Polish visa and said she would never return to her home country out of fear for her life.

    The action follows sanctions last year imposed by the U.S. and European...

  • Don’t expect the infrastructure bill now making its way through Congress to have a big impact on economic growth in the next few years—but it could lead to long-term gains in productivity Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 09 Aug 2021 20:41

    WASHINGTON—The bipartisan infrastructure bill is unlikely to have a big impact on growth in the next few years, economists say. Longer term, though, investments in highways, ports and broadband could make the economy more efficient and productive.

    The short-term boost to growth will be relatively limited for two reasons, economists say. For one, the bill represents just $550 billion in new spending—compared with nearly $6 trillion that Congress has approved in the past year-and-a-half to battle the Covid-19 pandemic and its economic fallout.

    Second, the infrastructure spending will take place over five to 10 years starting in 2022, a longer timeline than pandemic-era initiatives like stimulus checks, extra unemployment benefits and small-business support programs. That will make its direct effects on employment and demand less noticeable.

    Alec Phillips, chief political economist for Goldman Sachs Research, said the infrastructure bill could add around...

  • Unfilled job openings rose by 590,000 to a seasonally adjusted 10.1 million in June, exceeding the 9.5 million people who were unemployed that same month Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 09 Aug 2021 20:41

    Available jobs in the U.S. rose to another record high at the end of June, pushing openings above the number of unemployed Americans seeking work, a sign of an unusually tight labor market.

    Unfilled job openings rose by 590,000 to a seasonally adjusted 10.1 million in June, the highest level since record-keeping began in 2000, the Labor Department said Monday. The increase was driven by industries such as professional and business services, retail and the accommodation and food services, as pandemic restrictions continued to ease that month and consumers were more willing to dine out and travel.

    The June increase in job openings came ahead of an uptick in cases tied to Covid-19’s Delta variant. Private measures of job postings through July showed openings remained elevated, though they began to plateau as hiring improved. The continued high number of openings indicates that the variant, so far, isn’t affecting hiring plans.

    The number of job openings in...

  • China’s producer prices rise at unexpectedly fast pace, despite efforts to cool commodities costs Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 09 Aug 2021 20:36

    BEIJING—China’s factory-gate prices rose at an unexpectedly fast clip in July, matching the highest level in more than 12 years as crude oil and coal prices soared—though economists say the price pickup is unlikely to last.

    China’s producer-price index rose 9.0% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday—faster than June’s 8.8% year-over-year increase and the 8.8% gain forecast by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

    July’s increase matched May’s 9.0% year-over-year jump, which marked the biggest surge in producer prices since September 2008.

    On a month-over-month basis, China’s producer prices rose 0.5% in July, faster than June’s 0.3% advance.

    The price increases came despite measures taken by Beijing in recent months to cool soaring commodity prices, including restricting steel exports and cracking down on speculative behavior.

  • The U.S. is stepping up pressure on American businesses to sever ties with China’s Xinjiang region, as Beijing’s alleged use of forced labor emerges as a top item on the bilateral trade agenda. Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 09 Aug 2021 20:06

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  • The degree to which 12-month inflation readings fall back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal could rest on the behavior of rents and home prices. Link https://t.co/wX4XkwWdph
    Real Time Economics Mon 09 Aug 2021 19:31

    The biggest wildcard for U.S. inflation over the next year doesn’t come from used cars or airline fares. Instead, it is housing.

    Officials at the Federal Reserve and the White House have highlighted what many forecasters expect will be the temporary nature of elevated price readings stemming from the reopening of the economy following pandemic-related restrictions.

    But the degree to which 12-month inflation readings fall back to the central bank’s 2% goal could rest on the behavior of rents and home prices. In recent months, housing-cost trends point to more persistent, rather than transitory, upward price pressures in the coming years.

    Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 3.5% in June from a year earlier, according to the Fed’s preferred gauge, the personal-consumption expenditures price index. That was the highest rate of growth in 30 years. Rising prices over the April-to-June quarter largely reflected disrupted supply...

  • What’s in Democrats’ $3.5 trillion budget plan—and how they plan to pay for it Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 09 Aug 2021 18:56

    The legislation is expected to include paid family and medical leave, subsidized child care, an extension of an expanded child tax credit, universal prekindergarten for three- and four-year-olds and two years of tuition-free community college. It will also provide green cards to millions of immigrants.

    It would also extend expanded Affordable Care Act subsidies approved earlier this year in the Covid-19 aid package.The plan would broaden Medicare benefits to cover dental, vision and hearing—and would aim to reduce the cost of prescription drugs by allowing Medicare to negotiate prices, among other steps.

  • Democrats are planning to raise taxes on corporations and high-income households to cover the cost of the $3.5 trillion antipoverty and climate plan they hope to approve this fall without Republican support Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 09 Aug 2021 18:21

    WASHINGTON—Senate Democrats released an outline of the $3.5 trillion antipoverty and climate plan they hope to approve this fall, further detailing their ambitions for the major legislative effort that they intend to approve without Republican support.

    The plan, which is set to offer universal prekindergarten, two free years of community college, and expanded Medicare to cover hearing, dental and vision care, is the second of two major packages encapsulating President Biden’s agenda that lawmakers are pushing through Congress this year. The first, the roughly $1 trillion infrastructure plan, is nearing final passage in the Senate.

    Democrats are planning to raise taxes on corporations and high-income households to cover the cost of the $3.5 trillion plan, which also calls for a federal paid leave benefit, a series of energy tax incentives, and a program to push the U.S. to receive 80% of its electricity from clean sources by 2030. The plan outlined by Senate...

  • Looking for work? There’s plenty available. Job openings rose above 10 million in June, exceeding the number of unemployed Americans. Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 09 Aug 2021 17:51

    Available jobs in the U.S. rose to another record high at the end of June, pushing openings above the number of unemployed Americans seeking work, a sign of an unusually tight labor market.

    Unfilled job openings rose by 590,000 to a seasonally adjusted 10.1 million in June, the highest level since record-keeping began in 2000, the Labor Department said Monday. The increase was driven by industries such as professional and business services, retail and the accommodation and food services, as pandemic restrictions continued to ease that month and consumers were more willing to dine out and travel.

    The June increase in job openings came ahead of an uptick in cases tied to Covid-19’s Delta variant. Private measures of job postings through July showed openings remained elevated, though they began to plateau as hiring improved. The continued high number of openings indicates that the variant, so far, isn’t affecting hiring plans.

    The number of job openings in...

  • China’s producer-price index rose 9.0% in July from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday—faster than June’s 8.8% year-over-year increase and the 8.8% gain forecast by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 09 Aug 2021 17:31

    BEIJING—China’s factory-gate prices rose at an unexpectedly fast clip in July, matching the highest level in more than 12 years as crude oil and coal prices soared—though economists say the price pickup is unlikely to last.

    China’s producer-price index rose 9.0% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday—faster than June’s 8.8% year-over-year increase and the 8.8% gain forecast by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

    July’s increase matched May’s 9.0% year-over-year jump, which marked the biggest surge in producer prices since September 2008.

    On a month-over-month basis, China’s producer prices rose 0.5% in July, faster than June’s 0.3% advance.

    The price increases came despite measures taken by Beijing in recent months to cool soaring commodity prices, including restricting steel exports and cracking down on speculative behavior.

  • Senate Democrats $3.5 trillion antipoverty and climate plan doesn’t include a measure to increase the U.S. government’s borrowing limit, indicating that Democrats will seek to raise the debt ceiling with GOP support in the coming weeks. Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 09 Aug 2021 17:31

    WASHINGTON—Senate Democrats released an outline of the $3.5 trillion antipoverty and climate plan they hope to approve this fall, further detailing their ambitions for the major legislative effort that they intend to approve without Republican support.

    The plan, which is set to offer universal prekindergarten, two free years of community college, and expanded Medicare to cover hearing, dental and vision care, is the second of two major packages encapsulating President Biden’s agenda that lawmakers are pushing through Congress this year. The first, the roughly $1 trillion infrastructure plan, is nearing final passage in the Senate.

    Democrats are planning to raise taxes on corporations and high-income households to cover the cost of the $3.5 trillion plan, which also calls for a federal paid leave benefit, a series of energy tax incentives, and a program to push the U.S. to receive 80% of its electricity from clean sources by 2030. The plan outlined by Senate...

  • U.S. Treasury yields are down to levels that few investors believed they would see at a time of strong growth and rising inflation Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 09 Aug 2021 16:51

    A little more than a month ago, Zhiwei Ren pared back his bet that strong growth and inflation would cause bond prices to fall and their yields to rise—even though he still believed in his economic forecast.

    A fixed-income portfolio manager for Penn Mutual Asset Management, Mr. Ren had positioned his funds since late last year so that they held, in effect, a smaller amount of 10- and 30-year bonds than their benchmark index, leaving them less vulnerable to rising long-term interest rates. This stance paid off when U.S. Treasury yields soared in the first quarter of the year but started to drag on returns in subsequent months, as yields fell sharply and, for many on Wall Street, unexpectedly.

    Mr. Ren and his colleagues stuck for a while with their conviction that yields would bounce back but eventually decided to bend to the market tide. Their funds are now still positioned for higher yields but not as aggressively as they were previously.

    “It’s not a...

  • Canada opened its border to fully vaccinated American tourists, raising hopes that businesses hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic will get a boost Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 09 Aug 2021 16:21

    CORNWALL, ONT.—Canada opened its border to fully vaccinated American tourists on Monday, raising hopes in border towns and tourist hot spots that businesses hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic will get a boost from out-of-country visitors before the end of the summer.

    Some Americans said they planned to cross the border at their first opportunity so they could reunite with romantic partners they haven’t seen in more than a year. Others said they would return to vacation properties they own in Canada or visit friends and relatives who live on the other side of the border.

    Natasha Marsh, who lives near Buffalo, N.Y., said on Sunday that she planned to cross the border immediately after it reopened so she could meet her partner, who lives in Toronto, at a Tim Hortons’ coffee shop in the Canadian border town of Fort Erie.

    “We have missed so much of each others’ lives, so many milestones,” Ms. Marsh said before the planned meeting. “We just want to reconnect...

  • RT @greg_ip: The biggest threat to Fed's 2% inflation target is housing, @NickTimiraos writes. E.g. Fannie Mae sees shelter inflation going…
    Real Time Economics Mon 09 Aug 2021 15:51
  • Even entry-level workers are bargaining for higher wages in Detroit as the area experiences below-average unemployment rates not seen for decades Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 09 Aug 2021 14:51

    DETROIT—Hiring in the Motor City region hasn’t been this hard for 20 years.

    Seth Gold is offering $250 sign-on bonuses, something he can’t remember happening before in the roughly 80 years his family has run American Jewelry and Loan, a chain of pawnshops. Even then, he sometimes finds entry-level workers want to negotiate with him for higher pay.

    “Hiring? It’s a challenge, to put it lightly,” said Mr. Gold as he walked by employees organizing pawned items in the shop’s warehouse filled with power tools, fur coats and motorcycles.

    Employers across the greater Detroit region are feeling the impact of the tight labor market.

    The Detroit metropolitan area unemployment rate—which can be seen as a gauge of available workers—has held below the nation’s rate since the start of the year, the first sustained period of below-average joblessness in the metro area in two decades.

  • The Senate is on track to pass the roughly $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill in the coming days after clearing a final set of procedural hurdles Sunday Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 09 Aug 2021 13:51

    WASHINGTON—The roughly $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill cleared a final set of procedural hurdles in the Senate, putting the legislation on track to easily pass the chamber in the coming days.

    While Republicans and Democrats disagreed throughout the weekend on how to consider additional amendments to the legislation, they moved forward with procedural votes on a bipartisan basis. As many as 18 Republicans joined with Democrats on the various procedural motions.

    The bill will face a more complicated path in the House, where House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) has said she wouldn’t bring it up until the Senate also passes a $3.5 trillion antipoverty and climate bill.

    Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) is also pushing for Democrats to approve the budget outline for the $3.5 trillion package in the coming days.

    “We can get this done the easy way or the hard way. In either case, the Senate will stay in session until we...

  • Senate Democrats released an outline of the $3.5 trillion antipoverty and climate plan they hope to approve this fall, further detailing their ambitions for the major legislative effort that they plan to approve without Republican support Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 09 Aug 2021 13:21

    WASHINGTON—Senate Democrats released an outline of the $3.5 trillion antipoverty and climate plan they hope to approve this fall, further detailing their ambitions for the major legislative effort that they plan to approve without Republican support.

    The plan, which is set to offer universal prekindergarten, two free years of community college, and expand Medicare to cover hearing, dental and vision care, is the second of two major packages encapsulating President Biden’s agenda that lawmakers are pushing through Congress this year. The first, the roughly $1 trillion infrastructure plan, is nearing final passage in the Senate.

    Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) wrote in a letter to Senate Democrats on Monday morning that the Senate will take up the budget plan for the bill, a key first step toward crafting the overall package, after the Senate wraps up the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill. Mr. Schumer has said that the Senate won’t...

  • A rubber parts factory took a gamble and raised wages to try to attract workers. The profits came as a surprise. Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 09 Aug 2021 13:06

    CLEVELAND— Charlie Braun long wondered whether paying higher wages would ease staffing shortages at his rubber parts factory, or simply push it into financial trouble. The Covid-19 pandemic provided a rare opportunity to experiment.

    With an $879,000 forgivable loan from the federal Paycheck Protection Program as a cushion, Mr. Braun raised wages for some employees three times this year. Starting pay for machine operators, the toughest position to fill, jumped by $4.55 to $18.25 an hour, and to $19 for the night shift.

  • The U.S. is stepping up pressure on American businesses to sever ties with China’s Xinjiang region over Beijing’s alleged use of forced labor Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 09 Aug 2021 12:06

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