• Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren says the central bank could be in position to end asset purchases by middle of 2022 Link
    Real Time Economics Tue 17 Aug 2021 02:28

    Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said his outlook for the U.S. economy has improved this year despite the recent Covid-19 outbreaks associated with the Delta variant, and he expects strong hiring to allow the central bank to soon begin reversing the extremely accommodative monetary policy adopted at the height of the coronavirus pandemic.

    The Fed could be in a position to start reducing its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases this fall and, if strong economic growth continues, the Fed might be able to end those purchases toward the middle of 2022, Mr. Rosengren said in an interview on Thursday, August 12.

    Here is a partial transcript of the interview, lightly edited for clarity and length.

    NICK TIMIRAOS, The Wall Street Journal: Can you walk me through how your outlook for the economy and for policy changed since March of this year?

    ERIC ROSENGREN, Boston Fed: So it’s changed in a couple of ways. One, we’ve...

  • Reducing bond buying sooner than currently anticipated could provide the Federal Reserve with more flexibility to raise interest rates if inflation stays high and unemployment falls rapidly Link
    Real Time Economics Tue 17 Aug 2021 01:53

    Federal Reserve officials are nearing agreement to begin scaling back their easy money policies in about three months if the economic recovery continues, with some pushing to end their asset-purchase program by the middle of next year.

    In recent interviews and public statements, several have advocated for this timetable, which would enable them to raise interest rates sooner than currently anticipated if the economy makes rapid progress toward their goals.

    The central bank last December said it would continue the current pace of bond purchases until officials concluded they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of 2% average inflation and robust employment.

    Officials at their July 27-28 meeting deliberated on two important questions: when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them. The Fed is set to release on...

  • House Speaker Nancy Pelosi asked a top committee to look at moving forward on a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill along with the $3.5 trillion budget framework in an effort to balance the demands of her party’s ideological factions. Link
    Real Time Economics Tue 17 Aug 2021 00:48

    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) on Sunday asked a top committee to look at moving forward on a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill along with the $3.5 trillion budget framework in an effort to balance the demands of her party’s ideological factions.

    The request came after nine centrist House members said Thursday they “will not consider voting for a budget resolution until” the House approves the infrastructure bill.

    The threat complicated the timeline Mrs. Pelosi had previously set. She had said the infrastructure package wouldn’t move ahead until Senate passage of the $3.5 trillion antipoverty and healthcare legislation. Progressives have demanded that the two move on parallel tracks to guarantee their priorities.

    “I have requested that the Rules Committee explore the possibility of a rule that advances both the budget resolution and the bipartisan infrastructure package. This will put us on a path to advance the infrastructure...

  • Fed officials weigh ending asset purchases by mid-2022 Link
    Real Time Economics Tue 17 Aug 2021 00:13

    Federal Reserve officials are nearing agreement to begin scaling back their easy money policies in about three months if the economic recovery continues, with some pushing to end their asset-purchase program by the middle of next year.

    In recent interviews and public statements, several have advocated for this timetable, which would enable them to raise interest rates sooner than currently anticipated if the economy makes rapid progress toward their goals.

    The central bank last December said it would continue the current pace of bond purchases until officials concluded they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of 2% average inflation and robust employment.

    Officials at their July 27-28 meeting deliberated on two important questions: when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them. The Fed is set to release on...

  • The Biden administration unveiled the largest-ever increase in food-stamp benefits. USDA said the average monthly SNAP benefit would increase by $36 a person to $169. Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 16 Aug 2021 23:38

    The Biden administration unveiled the largest-ever increase in food-stamp benefits, boosting federal nutrition assistance after hunger surged in America during the coronavirus pandemic.

    Following a review of the plan governing the nation’s food-stamp program, or Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said the average monthly SNAP benefit would increase by $36 a person to $169. The increase, which totals $1.19 a day, reflects higher costs for a nutritious diet, the USDA said on Monday.

    The change, set to take effect on Oct. 1, marks a more than 25% jump from what participants would have received once temporary pandemic assistance ends. Before the pandemic, beneficiaries on average received $121 a month, the USDA said, though that amount swelled due to temporary coronavirus-related measures. SNAP helps to feed more than 42 million Americans, and the benefit increase is the biggest in the program’s nearly 60-year...

  • Declining travel bookings. Delayed office re-openings. Slower production of Pringles. The Delta variant is leaving a mark on business. Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 16 Aug 2021 22:53

    Repercussions from the Delta variant of Covid-19 are starting to ripple across companies, raising staffing costs in senior housing, disrupting production of potato chips and leading some companies to rein in profit projections.

    Still unclear: whether the highly contagious strain of the virus will be a momentary stumble in an improving global economy—one that businesses and consumers are now better equipped to handle—or something more serious.

    In recent weeks, Kellogg Co. said Delta’s spread in Malaysia slowed production of Pringles there. Online travel company Booking Holdings Inc. said overall bookings declined as Delta took root in July. U.S. healthcare companies say elective medical procedures are slowing once again in some places.

    And, as more employers postpone their return to offices, the outlook is darkening for such disparate companies as a 25-person Houston cable installer and a company with a $1.3 billion market-capitalization that sells...

  • China’s pandemic response initially drove faster economic growth, but the U.S. poured more resources into recovery, fueling faster gains ahead, economists say Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 16 Aug 2021 21:53

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  • “What we really need is people to go back to work to get business.” Companies big and small are being hit by the Delta variant. Will this be a stumble or a fall? Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 16 Aug 2021 20:53

    Repercussions from the Delta variant of Covid-19 are starting to ripple across companies, raising staffing costs in senior housing, disrupting production of potato chips and leading some companies to rein in profit projections.

    Still unclear: whether the highly contagious strain of the virus will be a momentary stumble in an improving global economy—one that businesses and consumers are now better equipped to handle—or something more serious.

    In recent weeks, Kellogg Co. said Delta’s spread in Malaysia slowed production of Pringles there. Online travel company Booking Holdings Inc. said overall bookings declined as Delta took root in July. U.S. healthcare companies say elective medical procedures are slowing once again in some places.

    And, as more employers postpone their return to offices, the outlook is darkening for such disparate companies as a 25-person Houston cable installer and a company with a $1.3 billion market-capitalization that sells...

  • Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren says the central bank could be in position to end asset purchases by middle of 2022 Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 16 Aug 2021 19:48

    Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said his outlook for the U.S. economy has improved this year despite the recent Covid-19 outbreaks associated with the Delta variant, and he expects strong hiring to allow the central bank to soon begin reversing the extremely accommodative monetary policy adopted at the height of the coronavirus pandemic.

    The Fed could be in a position to start reducing its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases this fall and, if strong economic growth continues, the Fed might be able to end those purchases toward the middle of 2022, Mr. Rosengren said in an interview on Thursday, August 12.

    Here is a partial transcript of the interview, lightly edited for clarity and length.

    NICK TIMIRAOS, The Wall Street Journal: Can you walk me through how your outlook for the economy and for policy changed since March of this year?

    ERIC ROSENGREN, Boston Fed: So it’s changed in a couple of ways. One, we’ve...

  • Covid-19 travel restrictions are keeping out Mexican tourists who patronize many businesses on the U.S. side of the border. ‘We need our customers back,’ says a Texas store owner. Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 16 Aug 2021 19:08

    EL PASO, Texas—When the Covid-19 pandemic caused the U.S.-Mexico border to shut down in the spring of 2020, many retail and other businesses on the U.S. side lost a swath of customers. Gregoria Flores is still waiting for their return.

    Ms. Flores’ store, Novedades Yeya’s, sits a few blocks away from the Paso del Norte port of entry in downtown El Paso. She estimates that before border restrictions banned nonessential travel, about 90% of her customers were Mexican nationals from the neighboring city of Ciudad Juárez  who would regularly cross into El Paso to shop, eat or visit family.

    Now, the stretch of South El Paso Street where Ms. Flores’s shop is located sees fewer border crossers than in pre-pandemic times, and further away from the port, foot traffic is sparser, she, other business owners and employees said.

    While retail, restaurants and other establishments have been springing back to life across much of the U.S. as more people get...

  • Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren says the central bank could be in position to end asset purchases by middle of 2022 Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 16 Aug 2021 18:08

    Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said his outlook for the U.S. economy has improved this year despite the recent Covid-19 outbreaks associated with the Delta variant, and he expects strong hiring to allow the central bank to soon begin reversing the extremely accommodative monetary policy adopted at the height of the coronavirus pandemic.

    The Fed could be in a position to start reducing its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases this fall and, if strong economic growth continues, the Fed might be able to end those purchases toward the middle of 2022, Mr. Rosengren said in an interview on Thursday, August 12.

    Here is a partial transcript of the interview, lightly edited for clarity and length.

    NICK TIMIRAOS, The Wall Street Journal: Can you walk me through how your outlook for the economy and for policy changed since March of this year?

    ERIC ROSENGREN, Boston Fed: So it’s changed in a couple of ways. One, we’ve...

  • Spring and summer seemed to promise a rapid, uninterrupted economic recovery. Now the Delta variant may be changing the outlook. Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 16 Aug 2021 17:23

    Repercussions from the Delta variant of Covid-19 are starting to ripple across companies, raising staffing costs in senior housing, disrupting production of potato chips and leading some companies to rein in profit projections.

    Still unclear: whether the highly contagious strain of the virus will be a momentary stumble in an improving global economy—one that businesses and consumers are now better equipped to handle—or something more serious.

    In recent weeks, Kellogg Co. said Delta’s spread in Malaysia slowed production of Pringles there. Online travel company Booking Holdings Inc. said overall bookings declined as Delta took root in July. U.S. healthcare companies say elective medical procedures are slowing once again in some places.

    And, as more employers postpone their return to offices, the outlook is darkening for such disparate companies as a 25-person Houston cable installer and a company with a $1.3 billion market-capitalization that sells...

  • Reducing bond buying sooner than currently anticipated could provide the Federal Reserve with more flexibility to raise interest rates if inflation stays high and unemployment falls rapidly Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 16 Aug 2021 16:23

    Federal Reserve officials are nearing agreement to begin scaling back their easy money policies in about three months if the economic recovery continues, with some pushing to end their asset-purchase program by the middle of next year.

    In recent interviews and public statements, several have advocated for this timetable, which would enable them to raise interest rates sooner than currently anticipated if the economy makes rapid progress toward their goals.

    The central bank last December said it would continue the current pace of bond purchases until officials concluded they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of 2% average inflation and robust employment.

    Officials at their July 27-28 meeting deliberated on two important questions: when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them. The Fed is set to release on...

  • The U.S. and China are trading places in the economic growth race. The recent reversal in growth delays somewhat China’s prospective economic ascendancy. Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 16 Aug 2021 15:43

    We are delighted that you'd like to resume your subscription.

    You will be charged $ + tax (if applicable) for The Wall Street Journal. You may change your billing preferences at any time in the Customer Center or call Customer Service. You will be notified in advance of any changes in rate or terms. You may cancel your subscription at anytime by calling Customer Service.

    Please click confirm to resume now.

  • Markets this week will focus on U.S. retail sales and minutes from the Fed’s July policy meeting Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 16 Aug 2021 14:43

    China’s economic activity likely slowed further in July because of fading base effects and extreme weather conditions that hindered the country’s service sector. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expect the country’s retail sales to increase 11.4% from a year earlier, compared with a 12.1% gain in June. Industrial output in July likely rose 7.8% on year, decelerating from 8.3% in June. China’s nonrural fixed-asset investment—a measure that captures investment in factories, railroads and new homes—also likely retreated although the government has aimed to boost infrastructure investment.

  • House Speaker Nancy Pelosi asked a top committee to look at moving forward on a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill along with the $3.5 trillion budget framework in an effort to balance the demands of her party’s ideological factions. Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 16 Aug 2021 13:38

    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) on Sunday asked a top committee to look at moving forward on a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill along with the $3.5 trillion budget framework in an effort to balance the demands of her party’s ideological factions.

    The request came after nine centrist House members said Thursday they “will not consider voting for a budget resolution until” the House approves the infrastructure bill.

    The threat complicated the timeline Mrs. Pelosi had previously set. She had said the infrastructure package wouldn’t move ahead until Senate passage of the $3.5 trillion antipoverty and healthcare legislation. Progressives have demanded that the two move on parallel tracks to guarantee their priorities.

    “I have requested that the Rules Committee explore the possibility of a rule that advances both the budget resolution and the bipartisan infrastructure package. This will put us on a path to advance the infrastructure...

  • Fed officials weigh ending asset purchases by mid-2022 Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 16 Aug 2021 09:37

    Federal Reserve officials are nearing agreement to begin scaling back their easy money policies in about three months if the economic recovery continues, with some pushing to end their asset-purchase program by the middle of next year.

    In recent interviews and public statements, several have advocated for this timetable, which would enable them to raise interest rates sooner than currently anticipated if the economy makes rapid progress toward their goals.

    The central bank last December said it would continue the current pace of bond purchases until officials concluded they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of 2% average inflation and robust employment.

    Officials at their July 27-28 meeting deliberated on two important questions: when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them. The Fed is set to release on...

  • the rate at which workers quit their jobs, a proxy for confidence in the labor market, rose in June to just below the record high touched in April. Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 16 Aug 2021 04:47

    Available jobs in the U.S. rose to another record high at the end of June, pushing openings above the number of unemployed Americans seeking work, a sign of an unusually tight labor market.

    Unfilled job openings rose by 590,000 to a seasonally adjusted 10.1 million in June, the highest level since record-keeping began in 2000, the Labor Department said Monday. The increase was driven by industries such as professional and business services, retail and the accommodation and food services, as pandemic restrictions continued to ease that month and consumers were more willing to dine out and travel.

    The June increase in job openings came ahead of an uptick in cases tied to Covid-19’s Delta variant. Private measures of job postings through July showed openings remained elevated, though they began to plateau as hiring improved. The continued high number of openings indicates that the variant, so far, isn’t affecting hiring plans.

    The number of job openings in...

  • Home prices surged in almost every corner of the U.S. in the second quarter as robust demand continued to overwhelm the supply of homes for sale Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 16 Aug 2021 03:47

    Home prices surged in almost every corner of the U.S. in the second quarter as robust demand continued to overwhelm the supply of homes for sale.

    While the homebuying frenzy has shown signs of a slowdown in recent months, home-price growth has yet to cool.

    The median sales price for single-family existing homes was higher in the second quarter compared with a year ago for 182 of the 183 metro areas tracked by the National Association of Realtors, the association said Thursday. In 94% of those metro areas, median prices rose by more than 10% from a year earlier.

    Nationwide, the median single-family existing-home sales price rose 22.9% in the second quarter to $357,900 from a year ago, a record in data going back to 1968, NAR said.

    Home prices have climbed in the past year as low interest rates and increased remote work spurred new homebuying demand. At the same time, the inventory of homes on the market has dropped as potential sellers canceled or...

  • America's white population shrank for the first time, census data show, as the U.S. diversified and grew rapidly in the South and Southwest Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 16 Aug 2021 02:47

    The first detailed results of the 2020 census show a diversifying nation where the total white population shrank for the first time in its history and where large metropolitan areas, especially in the South and Southwest, saw the strongest growth.

    The non-Hispanic white population dropped 2.6% between 2010 and 2020, a decline that puts that group’s share of the total U.S. population below 60%. The number of people who identify as more than one race or ethnicity grew at the fastest rate of any group, partly due to changes that captured more detailed responses.

    The nation’s population grew just 7.4% during the decade, the second slowest on record for a decennial census. Only the 1930s—the era of the Great Depression—saw slower growth. Slightly more than half, or 51%, of the total U.S. population growth in the latest period came from increases among Hispanic or Latino residents, the Census Bureau said.

    The new data show an overall aging of the nation’s...

  • "It seems like it is just a bust." Small-business confidence dropped in August to its lowest level since March as the Delta variant saps momentum Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 16 Aug 2021 01:47

    Small-business confidence dropped in August to its lowest level since early spring, as the rise in Covid-19 cases due to the highly transmissible Delta variant put a damper on expectations and turned entrepreneurs more cautious.

    Thirty-nine percent of small-business owners expect economic conditions in the U.S. to improve in the next 12 months, down from 50% in July and 67% in March, according to a survey of more than 560 small businesses for The Wall Street Journal by Vistage Worldwide Inc., a business coaching and peer advisory firm.

    The measure is one part of a broader confidence index that also tracks metrics such as small-business owners’ outlook for their companies and their investment and hiring plans. That overall figure remains positive, but fell to its lowest level since March.

    At Wizard Studios, an event production company with 25 employees, bookings jumped in May after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lifted mask mandates. The...

  • Employers added 943,000 jobs and jobless rate fell to 5.4% in July, signs of a strong labor market ahead of the Delta variant threat Link
    Real Time Economics Mon 16 Aug 2021 00:47

    A strengthening U.S. labor market added cushion to the economic recovery in July ahead of the surge in cases of the coronavirus’s Delta variant, with employers creating jobs at the best pace in nearly a year and the unemployment rate falling sharply.

    Nonfarm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 943,000 in July, the best gain in 11 months, the Labor Department said Friday.

    The unemployment rate, derived from a separate survey of households, fell to 5.4% last month from 5.9% in June to touch the lowest level since the pandemic took hold in the U.S. in March 2020. The latest data also showed some additional workers were drawn off the sidelines, and wages rose at a strong rate.

    Friday’s report shows that the U.S. economy is facing any threat posed by the Delta variant with a strong tailwind. The economy has recovered rapidly this year with availability of vaccines, business reopenings, pent-up consumer demand and aid flowing from multiple rounds of...

  • Treasury says revenue rose 18% to a record $3.3 trillion from October through July compared with a year earlier Link
    Real Time Economics Sun 15 Aug 2021 23:42

    The U.S. budget deficit narrowed to $2.5 trillion during the first 10 months of the fiscal year from $2.8 trillion in the same period a year earlier, with the gap between spending and revenue shrinking as the recovery from the pandemic-induced slump boosted tax collection.

    Outlays for the 10-month period rose 4% to a record $5.9 trillion, the Treasury Department said Wednesday. Spending has been boosted by pandemic-related costs that included tax credits, expanded unemployment compensation, emergency small-business loans and stimulus checks to households, but Treasury officials said such outlays are generally decelerating.

    Federal revenue during the period rose 18% from the same period the previous year to a record $3.3 trillion, largely due to higher receipts from individual and corporate income taxes.

    Revenue declined 54% to $262 billion in July from the same month last year. Treasury officials said revenue was unusually high last July because many...

  • RT @bobdavis187: For the first time in decades, US growth is outpacing China’s. That delays somewhat China’s drive to become the world’s la…
    Real Time Economics Sun 15 Aug 2021 22:42
  • “What we really need is people to go back to work to get business.” Companies big and small are being hit by the Delta variant. Will this be a stumble or a fall? Link
    Real Time Economics Sun 15 Aug 2021 21:57

    Repercussions from the Delta variant of Covid-19 are starting to ripple across companies, raising staffing costs in senior housing, disrupting production of potato chips and leading some companies to rein in profit projections.

    Still unclear: whether the highly contagious strain of the virus will be a momentary stumble in an improving global economy—one that businesses and consumers are now better equipped to handle—or something more serious.

    In recent weeks, Kellogg Co. said Delta’s spread in Malaysia slowed production of Pringles there. Online travel company Booking Holdings Inc. said overall bookings declined as Delta took root in July. U.S. healthcare companies say elective medical procedures are slowing once again in some places.

    And, as more employers postpone their return to offices, the outlook is darkening for such disparate companies as a 25-person Houston cable installer and a company with a $1.3 billion market-capitalization that sells...

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