This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas based on information collected on or before April 5, 2021. This document summarizes comments received from contacts outside the Federal Reserve System and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.

April 9, 2021

We’re excited to share a sneak preview of our upcoming series, Financial Inclusion & Beyond, where we’ll be exploring lessons from around the world on how a combination of public policy and technology can create a more inclusive financial system and promote financial health and well-being for everyone. We started recording this before the pandemic, and it’s taken us a little longer to get this to you as we record from home, but the events of the past year have only reinforced to us that this a crucially important topic. Here is a preview.

Stay tuned for the release of the entire series starting April 15.

Consumer spending and business operations across the United States have been highly dependent on local conditions related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Current economic forecasts therefore must incorporate projections for where the pandemic is headed. A new econometric model provides county-level and national forecasts of COVID-19 infections. Estimates from the model indicate that population immunity acquired from prior infections is the primary driver of recent declines in new cases. This factor should continue to exert strong downward pressure on new cases in the weeks ahead.

April 13, 2021 12:00 p.m. – 3:30 p.m. ET | 11:00 a.m. – 2:30 p.m. CT Virtual video event presented by all 12 District Banks of the Federal Reserve System

Progress continues on containment of the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of new cases in the United States has declined rapidly since January peaks and remains low, recently averaging 68,000 people over 14 days. Rates for hospitalizations and deaths due to the virus have also declined. Coupled with an acceleration in the vaccine rollouts and number of administered doses averaging 3 million per day over the past seven days, prospects for immunizing the majority of the population by the end of the year have improved significantly. Real GDP growth is off to a strong start in 2021 with continued support from accommodative fiscal and monetary policy. Consumer spending in particular, supported by the latest rounds of fiscal relief, is becoming more brisk. Overall, we expect a very strong second quarter of 2021, and for year-on-year GDP growth to reach 6.6% this year. We project real GDP to gradually return to its pre-pandemic trend over 2022 and 2023. The U.S. economy added a...

Progress continues on containment of the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of new cases in the United States has declined rapidly since January peaks and remains low, recently averaging 68,000 people over 14 days. Rates for hospitalizations and deaths due to the virus have also declined. Coupled with an acceleration in the vaccine rollouts and number of administered doses averaging 3 million per day over the past seven days, prospects for immunizing the majority of the population by the end of the year have improved significantly. Real GDP growth is off to a strong start in 2021 with continued support from accommodative fiscal and monetary policy. Consumer spending in particular, supported by the latest rounds of fiscal relief, is becoming more brisk. Overall, we expect a very strong second quarter of 2021, and for year-on-year GDP growth to reach 6.6% this year. We project real GDP to gradually return to its pre-pandemic trend over 2022 and 2023. The U.S. economy added a...

April 13, 2021 12:00 p.m. – 3:30 p.m. ET | 11:00 a.m. – 2:30 p.m. CT Virtual video event presented by all 12 District Banks of the Federal Reserve System

April 9, 2021

We’re excited to share a sneak preview of our upcoming series, Financial Inclusion & Beyond, where we’ll be exploring lessons from around the world on how a combination of public policy and technology can create a more inclusive financial system and promote financial health and well-being for everyone. We started recording this before the pandemic, and it’s taken us a little longer to get this to you as we record from home, but the events of the past year have only reinforced to us that this a crucially important topic. Here is a preview.

Stay tuned for the release of the entire series starting April 15.

Consumer spending and business operations across the United States have been highly dependent on local conditions related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Current economic forecasts therefore must incorporate projections for where the pandemic is headed. A new econometric model provides county-level and national forecasts of COVID-19 infections. Estimates from the model indicate that population immunity acquired from prior infections is the primary driver of recent declines in new cases. This factor should continue to exert strong downward pressure on new cases in the weeks ahead.