The Daily News Sentiment Index is a high frequency measure of economic sentiment based on lexical analysis of economics-related news articles. The index is described in Buckman, Shapiro, Sudhof, and Wilson (2020) and based on the methodology developed in Shapiro, Sudhof, and Wilson (2020).  

The study by Shapiro, Sudhof, and Wilson (2020, hereafter SSW), constructs sentiment scores for economics-related news articles from 16 major U.S. newspapers compiled by the news aggregator service LexisNexis. The newspapers cover all major regions of the country, including some with extensive national coverage such as the New York Times and the Washington Post. SSW selected articles with at least 200 words where LexisNexis identified the article’s topic as “economics” and the country subject as “United States.” Combining publicly available lexicons with a news-specific lexicon constructed by the authors, the study develops a sentiment-scoring model tailored specifically for...

In October 2019, the Federal Reserve conducted the sixth Diary of Consumer Payment Choice (Diary). Approximately two months later, the first case of COVID-19 was identified in China, and the virus has since spread to create a global pandemic. As the number of COVID-19 cases increased worldwide, U.S. cities and states began issuing stay-at-home orders in March 2020, and global demand for U.S. currency increased at record rates. Since March 1, the Federal Reserve has issued approximately $130 billion of currency into circulation (Figure 1). Because the 2019 Diary was conducted before the spread of COVID-19, it does not reflect payment behavior changes caused by the pandemic. Given the dramatic increase in demand for currency, along with anecdotal evidence of changing consumer payment practices during the pandemic, the Cash Product Office (CPO) sought to capture data regarding how the pandemic may have affected individuals’ payment behavior.

The Diary of Consumer Payment Choice (Diary) is an ongoing annual research effort conducted by the Federal Reserve to better understand payment habits of the U.S. population. This paper highlights findings from the sixth Diary study in 2019, and the fourth conducted annually in the month of October since 2016. A demographically-representative sample of 3,016 individuals from the Understanding America survey panel were asked to participate. Each individual was instructed to report all of their payments and transactions over an assigned, consecutive three-day period. The high-level findings are:

Cyclical and Acyclical Core PCE Inflation updates data on the contributions to core personal consumption expenditures from cyclical and acyclical components, based on the methods described in Mahedy and Shapiro (2017).

The personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) is one measure of U.S. inflation that is considered particularly useful for identifying underlying inflation trends. It tracks the change in prices of a particular basket of goods and services purchased by consumers throughout the economy. The “core” measure of PCEPI excludes food and energy products, whose prices tend to be volatile.

The data on this page divide the categories of core PCE inflation into cyclical and acyclical components. Cyclical components include those categories where prices tend to be more sensitive to overall economic conditions. Acyclical components include those categories that are more sensitive to industry-specific factors.

To determine which core PCE...

Productivity growth shows evidence of switching between long periods of high and low average growth. Estimates suggest that the United States has been in the low-growth regime since 2004. Assuming this low growth continues, productivity growth in the year 2025 would be 0.6%. By dropping this assumption and allowing for a switch to consistent higher growth, an alternative estimate forecasts that the distribution of possible productivity growth across quarters could average about 1.1% in 2025.

The Federal Reserve's community development function promotes the economic resilience and mobility of low- to moderate-income and underserved households and communities across the country. The spread of COVID-19 is having an impact on communities nationwide. To best respond to this crisis, information is needed about the scope and scale of the pandemic’s challenges. Throughout 2020, all 12 Reserve Banks and the Fed Board of Governors are surveying representatives of nonprofit organizations, financial institutions, government agencies, and other community organizations to understand the effects of COVID-19 on low- to moderate-income communities and the entities serving them. The results of each survey will be released as a downloadable report.

The Virtual Seminar on Climate Economics is an online seminar series hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The seminar is open to everyone interested in research on the economics of climate change—including topics drawn from macroeconomics, microeconomics, finance, econometrics, and environmental economics.

We convene on Zoom for a 50-minute talk and up to 25 minutes of discussion and Q&A.

Register to attend seminar series via Zoom.

Next seminar

July 23, 2020

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors is touring the country to talk with banks working with financial technology and fintech firms. Through a lot of open discussion, the Fed wants to get an accurate, well-rounded picture of emerging technologies as well as challenges facing the industry.

The Board and San Francisco Fed are co-hosting exclusive office hours for three days only. Here’s how you can get involved.