Thursday, August 20, 2020 10–11 a.m. Pacific Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Virtual

From physical distancing and face coverings, to a need for flexible schedules and remote work, what started as a response to a health crisis is turning into a new normal. The current pandemic is compelling American employers and employees to reconsider the way we work and live.

What’s next for the workplace once the pandemic is behind us? What aspects of work are so essential that they will revive once this crisis passes? And how do we help get millions of unemployed Americans back into this changing work environment and ensure they have the skills and capabilities to compete?

What is the new future of work?

Thursday, August 20, 2020 10–11 a.m. Pacific Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Virtual

From physical distancing and face coverings, to a need for flexible schedules and remote work, what started as a response to a health crisis is turning into a new normal. The current pandemic is compelling American employers and employees to reconsider the way we work and live.

What’s next for the workplace once the pandemic is behind us? What aspects of work are so essential that they will revive once this crisis passes? And how do we help get millions of unemployed Americans back into this changing work environment and ensure they have the skills and capabilities to compete?

What is the new future of work?

September 1, 2020

Patricia Gonzalez started dressing the part of a white-collar worker early in her career. It was a way to create a professional identity much different from her family’s origins in migrant farm labor.

“In the late 1980s, I started working at a major bank. I’d put on a uniform of a skirt, pantyhose, and pumps, and become somebody else: the office person,” she says.

Over the course of 21 years at the San Francisco Fed, Patricia’s work identity shifted—to that of her authentic self. For this purchasing and contracts specialist, bringing her whole self to work unlocked an ability to stretch professional muscles and accomplish more than she ever knew she could.

Empowerment comes from more than being able to “dress for her day,” although it is nice to flex between jeans and business casual, depending on what her work schedule looks like.

“I know I can be candid with my manager, grab a coffee with colleagues, or get support from a...

Thursday, August 20, 2020 10–11 a.m. Pacific Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Virtual

From physical distancing and face coverings, to a need for flexible schedules and remote work, what started as a response to a health crisis is turning into a new normal. The current pandemic is compelling American employers and employees to reconsider the way we work and live.

What’s next for the workplace once the pandemic is behind us? What aspects of work are so essential that they will revive once this crisis passes? And how do we help get millions of unemployed Americans back into this changing work environment and ensure they have the skills and capabilities to compete?

What is the new future of work?

After the historic hit to real GDP in the second quarter, an economic recovery appears to be underway, and we expect strong real GDP growth in the second half of the year. However, the pace of the recovery is quite uncertain and will depend heavily on the path of the COVID-19 pandemic and the pace of development of vaccines and effective drug treatments. Even with the strong growth forecast, it likely will take several years until the level of real GDP returns to the trend path it was on prior to the pandemic. A similar story applies to the labor market. Like GDP, nonfarm payroll employment plummeted in the spring, falling by over 22 million jobs in March and April. Employment has rebounded strongly in recent months, but far from enough to make up for all of these job losses. Correspondingly, the official unemployment rate has fallen from its peak in April of 14.7% to 10.2% in July, but it is still nearly three times higher than it was before the pandemic and is about where it was...

Stay-at-home orders issued to slow the spread of COVID-19 may have severely distorted labor market statistics, notably the official unemployment rate. A method to correct the survey biases associated with the pandemic indicates that the true unemployment rate was substantially higher than the official rate in April and May. However, the biases appeared to fade thereafter, making the drop in June even more dramatic than implied by the official data.

Despite a sharp spike in unemployment since March 2020, aggregate wage growth has accelerated. This acceleration has been almost entirely attributable to job losses among low-wage workers. Wage growth for those who remain employed has been flat. This pattern is not unique to COVID-19 but is more profound now than in previous recessions. This means that, in the wake of the virus, evaluations of the labor market must rely on a dashboard of indicators, rather than any single measure, to paint a complete picture of the losses and the recovery.

September 1, 2020

Patricia Gonzalez started dressing the part of a white-collar worker early in her career. It was a way to create a professional identity much different from her family’s origins in migrant farm labor.

“In the late 1980s, I started working at a major bank. I’d put on a uniform of a skirt, pantyhose, and pumps, and become somebody else: the office person,” she says.

Over the course of 21 years at the San Francisco Fed, Patricia’s work identity shifted—to that of her authentic self. For this purchasing and contracts specialist, bringing her whole self to work unlocked an ability to stretch professional muscles and accomplish more than she ever knew she could.

Empowerment comes from more than being able to “dress for her day,” although it is nice to flex between jeans and business casual, depending on what her work schedule looks like.

“I know I can be candid with my manager, grab a coffee with colleagues, or get support from a...

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Stay-at-home orders issued to slow the spread of COVID-19 may have severely distorted labor market statistics, notably the official unemployment rate. A method to correct the survey biases associated with the pandemic indicates that the true unemployment rate was substantially higher than the official rate in April and May. However, the biases appeared to fade thereafter, making the drop in June even more dramatic than implied by the official data.

Thursday, August 20, 2020 10–11 a.m. Pacific Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Virtual

From physical distancing and face coverings, to a need for flexible schedules and remote work, what started as a response to a health crisis is turning into a new normal. The current pandemic is compelling American employers and employees to reconsider the way we work and live.

What’s next for the workplace once the pandemic is behind us? What aspects of work are so essential that they will revive once this crisis passes? And how do we help get millions of unemployed Americans back into this changing work environment and ensure they have the skills and capabilities to compete?

What is the new future of work?

This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis based on information collected on or before August 24, 2020. This document summarizes comments received from contacts outside the Federal Reserve System and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.