• Our UIG measure puts trend CPI inflation in the 4.7% to 5.9% range for July 2022, a similar range to June, but with its lower and upper bounds both 0.1 percentage point lower. Check out our web feature and data for download: Link #inflation #AMEC https://t.co/OEpZfdBZBJ
    NY Fed Research Wed 10 Aug 2022 18:59
    We share two monthly estimates of trend inflation. The first derives a measure from a large number of price series in the consumer price index (CPI) as well as macroeconomic and financial variables; the second employs the prices-only data set. For more information, see our FAQ.
  • Data from the latest Center for Microeconomic Data surveys and reports is now featured at the top of the data bank page. Link https://t.co/4mDzODk3wS
    NY Fed Research Tue 09 Aug 2022 21:18
    Access data by topic: Each section below identifies data series in CMD reports and surveys. We report survey findings for respondents overall as well as by demographics including age, education, gender, and income.
  • New post highlights key facts from the current #studentloan landscape: more borrowers facing growing balances, a dramatic rise in borrowers’ credit scores in the pandemic, and wide differences in balances and delinquency rates across states. Link https://t.co/nuEY28Di4N
    NY Fed Research Tue 09 Aug 2022 13:35

    Today, researchers from the Center for Microeconomic Data released the 2022 Student Loan Update, which contains statistics summarizing who holds student loans along with characteristics of these balances. To compute these statistics, we use the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel (CCP), a nationally representative 5 percent sample of all U.S. adults with an Equifax credit report. For this update, we focus on individuals with a student loan on their credit report. The update is linked here and shared in the student debt section of the Center for Microeconomic Data’s website. In this post, we highlight three facts from the current student loan landscape.

  • SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS July 2022 The median expected growth in household income increased by 0.2 percentage point in July to 3.4%, a new series high. Link https://t.co/JxUuVpbSxp
    NY Fed Research Mon 08 Aug 2022 15:59
    Median one- and three-year-ahead inflation expectations both declined sharply in July, from 6.8 percent and 3.6 percent in June to 6.2 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively. Both decreases were broad-based across income groups, but largest among respondents with annual household incomes under $50,000 and respondents with no more than a high school education. Median five-year ahead inflation expectations, which have been elicited in the monthly SCE core survey on an ad-hoc basis since the beginning of this year, also declined to 2.3 percent from 2.8 percent in June. Expectations about year-ahead price increases for gas and food fell sharply. Home price growth expectations and year-ahead spending growth expectations continued to pull back from recent series highs. Households’ income growth expectations improved. Note: The newly released series for median five-year ahead inflation expectations is now included as the last tab in the “Chart Data” excel...
  • SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS Median one- and three-year-ahead inflation expectations both declined sharply in July, to 6.2% and 3.2% from 6.8% and 3.6% in June, respectively. Link https://t.co/ZVsjZTdSSA
    NY Fed Research Mon 08 Aug 2022 15:44
    Median one- and three-year-ahead inflation expectations both declined sharply in July, from 6.8 percent and 3.6 percent in June to 6.2 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively. Both decreases were broad-based across income groups, but largest among respondents with annual household incomes under $50,000 and respondents with no more than a high school education. Median five-year ahead inflation expectations, which have been elicited in the monthly SCE core survey on an ad-hoc basis since the beginning of this year, also declined to 2.3 percent from 2.8 percent in June. Expectations about year-ahead price increases for gas and food fell sharply. Home price growth expectations and year-ahead spending growth expectations continued to pull back from recent series highs. Households’ income growth expectations improved. Note: The newly released series for median five-year ahead inflation expectations is now included as the last tab in the “Chart Data” excel...
  • SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS July 2022 Inflation Expectations Fall; Income Growth Outlook Improves Link https://t.co/zRdp174a3Y
    NY Fed Research Mon 08 Aug 2022 15:39
    Median one- and three-year-ahead inflation expectations both declined sharply in July, from 6.8 percent and 3.6 percent in June to 6.2 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively. Both decreases were broad-based across income groups, but largest among respondents with annual household incomes under $50,000 and respondents with no more than a high school education. Median five-year ahead inflation expectations, which have been elicited in the monthly SCE core survey on an ad-hoc basis since the beginning of this year, also declined to 2.3 percent from 2.8 percent in June. Expectations about year-ahead price increases for gas and food fell sharply. Home price growth expectations and year-ahead spending growth expectations continued to pull back from recent series highs. Households’ income growth expectations improved. Note: The newly released series for median five-year ahead inflation expectations is now included as the last tab in the “Chart Data” excel...
  • RT @LibertyStEcon: Pandemic Wage Pressures Link
    NY Fed Research Mon 08 Aug 2022 14:38

    The recovery since the onset of the pandemic has been characterized by a tight labor market and rising nominal wage growth. In this post, we look at labor market conditions from a more granular, sectoral point of view focusing on data covering the nine major industries. This breakdown is motivated by the exceptionality of the pandemic episode, the way it has asymmetrically affected sectors of the economy, and by the possibility of exploiting sectoral heterogeneities to understand the drivers of recent labor market dynamics. We document that wage pressures are highest in the sectors with the largest employment shortfall relative to their pre-pandemic trend path, but that other factors explain most of the wage growth differentials. We suggest that one key factor is the extent of physical contact that has had to be compensated for by offering higher wages. One implication of our analysis is that, as COVID-related factors recede, sectoral imbalances could be restored...

  • Business activity continued to increase in the region’s service sector, though at a slower pace than in recent months, according to the September Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s headline business activity index fell 13 points to 14.4. Link https://t.co/5Y8rPCR8se
    NY Fed Research Thu 16 Sep 2021 13:56
    Business activity continued to increase in the region’s service sector, though at a slower pace than in recent months, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s September 2021 Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s headline business activity index fell thirteen points to 14.4, its third consecutive monthly decline. The business climate index fell to -8.5, indicating that firms generally viewed the business climate as worse than normal for this time of year. Employment levels and wages continued to rise at a solid clip. Both the prices paid and prices received indexes moved higher, pointing to a pickup in input and selling price increases. Capital spending expanded. Looking ahead, firms expressed the view that conditions would improve over the next six months, though optimism continued to wane, as it has for the past few months.

    More »

  • The September Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity grew at a swift pace. The general business conditions index increased 16 points to 34.3. Link https://t.co/9rtbUwyIdI
    NY Fed Research Wed 15 Sep 2021 13:35

    Note: Survey responses were collected between September 2 and September 10.

    Download the full report 

    Business activity grew at a swift pace in New York State, according to firms responding to the September 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed sixteen points to 34.3. New orders, shipments, and unfilled orders all increased substantially. The delivery times index reached a record high. Labor market indicators pointed to strong growth in employment and the average workweek. Both the prices paid and prices received indexes were at or near record highs. Looking ahead, firms remained very optimistic that conditions would improve over the next six months, and capital spending and technology spending plans increased markedly.

    More »

  • Did you know we track #COVID19 case growth in the Fed’s 2nd District on our Regional Economy page? Link + Direct links: Greater NYC: Link Upstate NY: Link Puerto Rico and
    NY Fed Research Thu 26 Aug 2021 14:02
    The Second Federal Reserve District includes New York State, Northern New Jersey, Southwestern Connecticut, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. In these pages, explore our regional economic data and research as well as information about community issues in the region.
  • REPLAY: Job seekers with limited employment prospects may be discarding too many potential job offers as they hold out for better work—a optimistic bias with implications for long-term unemployment incidence, an archive post shows. Link https://t.co/A9s1D96ECH
    NY Fed Research Mon 23 Aug 2021 14:33

    Andreas I. Mueller, Johannes Spinnewijn, and Giorgio Topa

    In addition to its terrible human toll, the COVID-19 pandemic has also caused massive disruption in labor markets. In the United States alone, more than 25 million people lost their jobs during the first wave of the pandemic. While many have returned to work since then, a large number have remained unemployed for a prolonged period of time. The number of long-term unemployed (defined as those jobless for twenty-seven weeks or longer) has surged from 1.1 million to almost 4 million. An important concern is that the long-term unemployed face worse employment prospects, but prior work has provided no consensus on what drives this decline in employment prospects. This post discusses new findings using data on elicited beliefs of unemployed job seekers to uncover the forces driving long-term unemployment.

  • REPLAY: The U.S. homeownership cycle has triggered large swings in Americans’ net worth, with fluctuations varying significantly by race and ethnicity. A post from our archive documents distinct trajectories and considers potential explanations. Link https://t.co/wl3HEdurmS
    NY Fed Research Wed 18 Aug 2021 14:30

    Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw

    Homeownership has historically been an important means for Americans to accumulate wealth—in fact, at more than $15 trillion, housing equity accounts for 16 percent of total U.S. household wealth. Consequently, the U.S. homeownership cycle has triggered large swings in Americans’ net worth over the past twenty-five years. However, the nature of those swings has varied significantly by race and ethnicity, with different demographic groups tracing distinct trajectories through the housing boom, the foreclosure crisis, and the subsequent recovery. Here, we look into the dynamics underlying these divergences and explore some potential explanations.

    A quick look at the 2016 Survey of Consumer Finances highlights key patterns and disparities in U.S. homeownership. For the median home-owning American household, home equity is their most important asset. This is especially...

  • A sizable share of firms say candidates are rejecting job offers over compensation; COVID-19 concerns are also reportedly being cited by some of those turning down jobs. Check out the special survey focused on hiring in the region: Link https://t.co/wIJ4JMW1N4
    NY Fed Research Tue 17 Aug 2021 15:59
  • Business activity grew significantly in the region’s service sector, according to firms responding to the August Business Leaders Survey, though growth was slower than the record-setting pace of the prior few months. Link https://t.co/QB05prC1oy
    NY Fed Research Tue 17 Aug 2021 13:24
    Business activity continued to increase significantly in the region’s service sector, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s August 2021 Business Leaders Survey. The survey’s headline business activity index fell fourteen points to 27.8, pointing to a slower pace of growth than the record-setting pace of the prior few months. The business climate index came in at around zero, indicating that firms generally viewed the business climate as normal for this time of year. Employment levels and wages continued to rise at a solid clip. Both the prices paid and prices received indexes remained elevated. Capital spending increased slightly, and firms expected to increase capital spending significantly in the coming months. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve, with the index for future employment holding near its record high, though optimism was lower than last month.

    More »

  • The August Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity continued to expand in New York State, though growth was slower than July’s record setting pace. The general business conditions index fell 25 points to 18.3. Link https://t.co/Qj38VGvMs3
    NY Fed Research Mon 16 Aug 2021 13:38

    Note: Survey responses were collected between August 2 and August 9.

    Download the full report 

    Business activity continued to expand in New York State, according to firms responding to the August 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey, though growth was significantly slower than last month’s record-setting pace. The headline general business conditions index fell twenty-five points to 18.3. New orders increased modestly, and shipments grew slightly. Delivery times continued to lengthen substantially, and inventories were somewhat higher. Employment and the average workweek increased modestly. Input prices continued to rise sharply, and the pace of selling price increases set another record. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve over the next six months, with substantial increases in employment and prices expected.

    More »

  • Consumers expect greater ease of finding jobs. Link https://t.co/YeJR3dR4gL
    NY Fed Research Fri 13 Aug 2021 16:10
    U.S. Economy in a Snapshot, produced by the Research Group of the New York Fed, is designed to provide a tight yet comprehensive overview of current economic and financial developments. This monthly packet presents charts and commentary on a broad range of topics that include labor and financial markets, the behavior of consumers and firms, and the global economy. What’s more, Snapshot aims to cover special topics such as movements in commodity prices, developments in the Second District, or findings from the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations.
  • Earnings growth expectations moved higher. Link https://t.co/AY49oxzPKj
    NY Fed Research Fri 13 Aug 2021 15:50
    U.S. Economy in a Snapshot, produced by the Research Group of the New York Fed, is designed to provide a tight yet comprehensive overview of current economic and financial developments. This monthly packet presents charts and commentary on a broad range of topics that include labor and financial markets, the behavior of consumers and firms, and the global economy. What’s more, Snapshot aims to cover special topics such as movements in commodity prices, developments in the Second District, or findings from the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations.
  • Strong payroll growth continued in July. Link https://t.co/QS8AOq3B4J
    NY Fed Research Fri 13 Aug 2021 15:45
    U.S. Economy in a Snapshot, produced by the Research Group of the New York Fed, is designed to provide a tight yet comprehensive overview of current economic and financial developments. This monthly packet presents charts and commentary on a broad range of topics that include labor and financial markets, the behavior of consumers and firms, and the global economy. What’s more, Snapshot aims to cover special topics such as movements in commodity prices, developments in the Second District, or findings from the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations.
  • Consumer expenditures continued to rebalance. Link https://t.co/T8GfP4TnMd
    NY Fed Research Fri 13 Aug 2021 15:35
    U.S. Economy in a Snapshot, produced by the Research Group of the New York Fed, is designed to provide a tight yet comprehensive overview of current economic and financial developments. This monthly packet presents charts and commentary on a broad range of topics that include labor and financial markets, the behavior of consumers and firms, and the global economy. What’s more, Snapshot aims to cover special topics such as movements in commodity prices, developments in the Second District, or findings from the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations.
  • Output in Q2 was above its pre-pandemic level. Link https://t.co/9HlMze4HGl
    NY Fed Research Fri 13 Aug 2021 15:25
    U.S. Economy in a Snapshot, produced by the Research Group of the New York Fed, is designed to provide a tight yet comprehensive overview of current economic and financial developments. This monthly packet presents charts and commentary on a broad range of topics that include labor and financial markets, the behavior of consumers and firms, and the global economy. What’s more, Snapshot aims to cover special topics such as movements in commodity prices, developments in the Second District, or findings from the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations.
  • U.S. Economy in a Snapshot (August)—Check out our monthly chart pack summing up factors affecting the economy. Link
    NY Fed Research Fri 13 Aug 2021 15:25
    U.S. Economy in a Snapshot, produced by the Research Group of the New York Fed, is designed to provide a tight yet comprehensive overview of current economic and financial developments. This monthly packet presents charts and commentary on a broad range of topics that include labor and financial markets, the behavior of consumers and firms, and the global economy. What’s more, Snapshot aims to cover special topics such as movements in commodity prices, developments in the Second District, or findings from the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations.
  • A first revision puts the Weekly Economic Index for the week ending Aug. 7 at 7.63, a decline relative to the final estimate for the week of July 31. Check out the index, developed to track rapid economic developments: Link https://t.co/NtkJRd77zn
    NY Fed Research Thu 12 Aug 2021 17:09
  • RT @LibertyStEcon: Unequal Burdens: Racial Differences in ICU Stress during the Third Wave of COVID-19 Link
    NY Fed Research Mon 09 Aug 2021 21:16

    A critical risk during the COVID-19 pandemic has been the possibility of the hospital system becoming overwhelmed. COVID-19 not only has killed nearly 2 percent of people with confirmed infections but causes many more who contract it to develop severe complications that are potentially fatal if not treated in an intensive care unit (ICU). As ICU capacity is based on typical needs for intensive care before the pandemic, a surge of COVID-related ICU patients may leave no room for individuals requiring intensive care for other reasons—such as heart attacks—or may exceed the total ICU capacity to treat even COVID-19 patients. In this post, we investigate the extent to which members of different racial and ethnic groups faced different levels of hospital system stress during the “third wave” of COVID-19 in the winter of 2021, which, as the largest wave to hit the United States, briefly brought intensive care units around the country to the point of being overwhelmed. We find that...

  • July Survey: The mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one's current job was lost) rose sharply to 57.0 percent from 54.2 percent in June, the fourth consecutive month-to-month increase and the highest level since February 2020. Link https://t.co/jzzcm29xYI
    NY Fed Research Mon 09 Aug 2021 16:51
    The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
  • July Survey: Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.8 percent, while inflation expectations at the three-year horizon increased slightly to 3.7 percent. Link https://t.co/FtKiDVxSQ8
    NY Fed Research Mon 09 Aug 2021 16:41
    The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
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