In this week’s episode of Take Notes, hosts Tom Schopflocher and Jim Manzi discuss their recently published chartbook: U.S. Structured Finance Snapshot: The Health Of U.S. Consumers. Topics include U.S. macroeconomic conditions, consumer ABS, housing/RMBS, and non-agency multifamily CMBS, and how the trends in asset classes reflect the health of U.S. consumers.

The twin threats to the global credit outlook of rising inflation and slower growth have yet to unsettle rated Irish issuers. While credit headwinds are rising, fueled by the causes and consequences of persistently high inflation, most Irish issuers look to be in a solid position.

Current challenges are compounding fundamental issues that could radically transform credit markets. As the global economy continues to recover from the pandemic under newly uncertain and volatile conditions, it will be reshaped by changed consumer behavior, reshuffled global supply chains and capital flows, resurfacing credit headwinds, renewed urgency to combat climate change, and new and existing geopolitical shocks, as well as accelerated digitalization of markets and the broader economy.

Take heed: Rating indicators--in the form of upgrades and downgrades as well as outlooks--all trended red last week. While one week does not signify an inflection point, it does warrant consideration. As market talk in different regions ebbs between the consequences of higher inflation and the possibility of recession, U.S. CPI numbers (Wednesday) will take center stage this week.

The report includes a roundup of the latest new issuance and credit developments that we have observed across structured finance sectors, along with data on issuance drivers, recent rating actions, and underlying performance indicators. We also highlight the key takeaways from our recent research publications. Investor-placed securitization issuance for July 2022 was €6.8 billion--the lowest total for the month since 2017. This means that overall issuance for the first seven months of the year--at €56 billion--was down more than 11% compared with 2021. In July 2022, we raised 15 of our ratings on European securitization tranches, mostly in the U.K. RMBS and auto ABS sectors. There were five downgrades on tranches in a single U.K. CMBS transaction. In the 12 months to end-July 2022, we lowered only 1.3% of our ratings.

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At this time we are unable to offer free trials or product demonstrations directly to students. If you discover that our solutions are not available to you, we encourage you to advocate at your university for a best-in-class learning experience that will help you long after you've completed your degree. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.

Thank you for your interest in S&P Global Market Intelligence! We noticed you've identified yourself as a student. Through existing partnerships with academic institutions around the globe, it's likely you already have access to our resources. Please contact your professors, library, or administrative staff to receive your student login.

At this time we are unable to offer free trials or product demonstrations directly to students. If you discover that our solutions are not available to you, we encourage you to advocate at your university for a best-in-class learning experience that will help you long after you've completed your degree. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.