• Replay of those Q4 growth numbers coming in. Link
    Bond Vigilantes Fri 15 Feb 2019 15:44

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  • Bank/insurance bonds have shrunk as a % of € credit indices, but risen as % of CDS index. Link https://t.co/NLyrqpSytQ
    Bond Vigilantes Fri 15 Feb 2019 14:24

    There is a general belief in markets that the economic cycle follows the US – and therefore that you can’t have a recession in a developed market without a US recession first.  Yes, the US economy is the biggest out there, and with general market sentiment being that we are late cycle it is understandable that everyone’s focus is on the US data and its flattening yield curve.

    But what has really been grabbing headlines in recent months has been the Eurozone economy, where data continues to disappoint: real growth is at its lowest since the sovereign debt crisis, Italy is now officially in recession after posting two consecutive quarters of negative growth, while Germany is on the borderline having just posted Q4 growth of zero after a negative Q3 print.

    Only time will tell whether the Eurozone goes into recession but if we do have a recession in Europe, while European credit will likely underperform, the magnitude of this underperformance probably won’t...

  • RT @Mr_DrinksOnMe: This is the sort of thing you film because no one would believe you otherwise. https://t.co/uOtz3UpV8f
    Bond Vigilantes Fri 15 Feb 2019 13:34
  • New post - European credit: divergence between the bond and credit derivatives markets Link
    Bond Vigilantes Fri 15 Feb 2019 12:54

    There is a general belief in markets that the economic cycle follows the US – and therefore that you can’t have a recession in a developed market without a US recession first.  Yes, the US economy is the biggest out there, and with general market sentiment being that we are late cycle it is understandable that everyone’s focus is on the US data and its flattening yield curve.

    But what has really been grabbing headlines in recent months has been the Eurozone economy, where data continues to disappoint: real growth is at its lowest since the sovereign debt crisis, Italy is now officially in recession after posting two consecutive quarters of negative growth, while Germany is on the borderline having just posted Q4 growth of zero after a negative Q3 print.

    Only time will tell whether the Eurozone goes into recession but if we do have a recession in Europe, while European credit will likely underperform, the magnitude of this underperformance probably won’t...

  • RT @RobinWigg: One of the wildest things about markets these days is how the absolutely MONSTROUS Taiwanese insurers have emerged as major…
    Bond Vigilantes Fri 15 Feb 2019 11:29
  • Nice try estate agent, nice try... "A bullet train linking the town to Tokyo is due to open in 2031." Link
    Bond Vigilantes Fri 15 Feb 2019 11:14

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  • With China going into the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index from April (ending up at 6% of it, 4th biggest weight),… Link
    Bond Vigilantes Fri 15 Feb 2019 09:43

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  • RT @georgemagnus1: Chinese unemployment, officially 3.8%, could have have been 8-9% before the slowdown started. Policymakers clearly getti…
    Bond Vigilantes Fri 15 Feb 2019 08:53
  • The winner of our Bankers & Bolsheviks competition was Robert Van Kleek. The answer: Petrograd was how St Petersbu… Link
    Bond Vigilantes Fri 15 Feb 2019 08:23

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  • RT @John_Stepek: (Sorry more MMT stuff) I also don't see why MMT needs to be invoked as a way to fund universal healthcare in the US. The…
    Bond Vigilantes Thu 14 Feb 2019 13:58
  • Some blasts from the past in this Spitting Image puppet auction - Gerhard Stoltenberg (currently £40), Hans-Jochen… Link
    Bond Vigilantes Wed 13 Feb 2019 14:42

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  • One day left to enter our competition to win @HmalikH's new book on the 1918 Russian debt default (the biggest sove… Link
    Bond Vigilantes Wed 13 Feb 2019 13:42

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  • RT @fergalob: It;s a volatile number, but that fall takes the y/y drop to 4.2% - that's the biggest since 2009. *EURO-AREA DEC. INDUSTRIAL…
    Bond Vigilantes Wed 13 Feb 2019 10:16
  • RT @queenofchartz: Brilliant. H/t @mariatad #inlovewiththecoco https://t.co/hkN0Xkociq
    Bond Vigilantes Wed 13 Feb 2019 10:06
  • RT @DavidJFlanagan_: New credit growth is still in free fall and suggest much further downside for house prices ahead.. #ausbiz #ausecon #…
    Bond Vigilantes Wed 13 Feb 2019 09:51
  • Ronaldo bond update: Juventus Football Club, 5 year, €150 mn, 3.5% area (so bunds + 380 bps ish). Not rated.
    Bond Vigilantes Wed 13 Feb 2019 09:11
  • Also worth noting that this Coco has a quarterly call, so we can play #SantanderCocoTwitter again in May.
    Bond Vigilantes Wed 13 Feb 2019 08:26
  • RT @benharnett: I interviewed 300 high achievers about their morning routine, and you will never believe, they all have inherited family we…
    Bond Vigilantes Wed 13 Feb 2019 08:01
  • News on the catastrophic price movements of the Santander Coco following yesterday's "no call": up a point this mor… Link
    Bond Vigilantes Wed 13 Feb 2019 07:56

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  • This time next year Rodney, we're going to be billionaires. Link
    Bond Vigilantes Wed 13 Feb 2019 07:46

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  • RT @lisaabramowicz1: U.S. mortgage originations declined in Q4 to the lowest level seen in nearly four years, according to the New York Fed…
    Bond Vigilantes Tue 12 Feb 2019 16:16
  • Ronaldo bonds. Link
    Bond Vigilantes Tue 12 Feb 2019 14:21
  • Aussie Royal Commission into financial services was good for bank credit; bonds and shares rallied.… Link
    Bond Vigilantes Tue 12 Feb 2019 11:55

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  • RT @ChrisGiles_: Really important for UKSA and HMT to follow this advice Link via @financialtimes
    Bond Vigilantes Tue 12 Feb 2019 11:50
  • UK index-linked gilts are underperforming today - breakeven rates are down 3 bps at 5 years.
    Bond Vigilantes Tue 12 Feb 2019 09:20
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